MLB playoff predictions 2023: Picking winner of each series in Wild Card round
After a 162-game marathon, we’re finally here. The 2023 MLB playoffs begin in earnest on Tuesday, with four Game 1 matchups in the Wild Card Round beginning with the Rangers at the Rays at 3:08 p.m. ET. Before the postseason gets rolling, though, it’s time to make some picks: Which teams have the best chances of advancing to a Division Series, and who will be sent home early? Here are our predictions for each Wild Card series.
American League predictions
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Two teams with once-historic offenses and rotations that have been absolutely decimated by injuries. Especially with Josh Jung back in the fold, Texas absolutely has the offensive firepower to go into the Trop and win two games. And yet, I have a hard time seeing it.
Go down the list, and you’ll have a hard time finding an area in which the Rangers are the better team at the moment. Starting pitching: Despite losing Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs, the Rays still boast Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale — more than good enough for a best-of-three series, and certainly sturdier than Jordan Montgomery, a clearly-diminished Nathan Eovaldi and ... Dane Dunning on short rest? Andrew Heaney? Martin Perez? Then there’s the bullpen: Texas has the sketchiest relief situation of any of these eight teams, with a 5.28 ERA since the start of September and not much of any answers outside of Aroldis Chapman.
If the Rangers have any shot of reaching the Divisional Round, they’re going to have to slug their way there, and I just don’t think they’ve been consistent enough at the plate over the second half of the year. Texas is 55-52 since the start of June, a schizophrenic team if ever there were one; Tampa has been great all year outside of a June swoon, and I trust Kevin Cash and Co. to manufacture a series win here.
Winner: Rays in 2
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
Forget Toronto’s underwhelming weekend, in which they got waxed twice by the Rays with a chance to wrap up the fifth seed. I’m putting Minnesota on upset alert, despite having home-field advantage this weekend.
For starters: Is it really much of an upset if the “underdogs” were two games better than the favorites in the regular season? Yes, the Jays underperformed relative to their on-paper talent for long stretches of this season. And yes, the Twins have as much starting pitching talent as anyone, leading the American League in team ERA and lining up three potential frontline guys (Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan) this week. But you also need to score runs, and that’s where I’m skeptical of Minnesota — especially against this Jays pitching staff.
The Twins are an awfully right-handed lineup, especially with Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa all expected back for Game 1. They also strike out a ton, leading the Majors in the category this year, and those two things play right into the hands of this Jays pitching staff. Toronto ranked second in the AL in strikeouts — largely thanks to Kevin Gausman, the Junior Circuit’s strikeout king — and posted an MLB-best 3.32 ERA against right-handed hitters. Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt can go toe-to-toe here, and I trust the Blue Jays’ bats a bit more.
Winner: Blue Jays in 3
National League predictions
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Kudos to Miami, who were fearless in snatching a Wild Card spot over the final week of the season. Still, it’s hard not to feel like this is an awfully lopsided matchup, pitting the defending NL champs against what is literally the worst team ever to make the MLB playoffs in a full season by run differential and Pythagorean record. (The Marlins were outscored by 52 runs this season, which should work out to an expected record of around 75-86 were it not for their 33-13 record in one-run games.)
It’s possible, especially given the state of this Phillies bullpen, that Miami could work that close-game magic yet again in a best-of-three where one or two weird bounces can swing everything. They’ll certainly miss Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez, but Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera are a capable starting trio. But past teams with sub-.500 Pythagorean records to make the playoffs haven’t fared that well; the Padres were swept in the first round, the 2007 Diamondbacks were swept in the NLCS, the 1984 Royals were swept in the ALCS, the 1981 Royals were swept in the first round, and the 1997 Giants were swept in the first round. I still don’t quite trust this makeshift Marlins offense, especially with Luis Arraez’s status still up in the air, and I think Philly’s home-field magic — good luck beating this team at CBP — and starting pitching depth (they have more postseason-quality pitchers than there are games in this series, allowing them to piggyback guys like Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez) to carry them through what I think will be a surprisingly competitive series.
Winner: Phillies in 3
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have been my World Series dark horse for weeks now, so you know I can’t pick against them here. Milwaukee was impressive in putting the NL Central to bed, and they line up about as well as any postseason rotation: Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta are the projected starters this week, all of whom have legitimate Cy Young stuff when they’re on. (Oh, and there’s Devin Williams lurking in the late innings.) Arizona’s postseason push will likely force them to start rookie Brandon Pfaadt in Game 1 on Tuesday, which doesn’t bode well for the D-backs, and I think Milwaukee will parlay that hot start into a series win. The Brewers’ lineup does give me pause — Arizona’s is probably a bit deeper, especially with the emergence of catcher Gabriel Moreno and the addition of Tommy Pham — but I think a resurgent Christian Yelich will provide just enough run support.
