Marlins vs. Phillies odds: Who is favorite to win Wild Card series in 2023 MLB playoffs

The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies will match up in the American League Wild Card Round in the 2023 MLB playoffs. Game 1 is set for Tuesday, October 3.

The Marlins snatched the fifth seed in the NL with a magical final week (and a collapse from the Chicago Cubs), but it remains to be seen whether this Cinderella story will strike midnight this week. Miami has a -56 run differential on the year, easily the worst of any postseason team, and got to October on the back of a bonkers 33-13 record in one-run games this season.

We saw the sort of devil magic the Phillies conjured up during last season’s run to the World Series, and there were times down the stretch this year that they started feeling that way again. They just haven’t been able to do it with any sort of consistency, although it was more than good enough to gain separation in a lackluster Wild Card race and put the top spot to bed without issue in September.

Let’s go over odds to win the series on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Marlins vs. Phillies odds

The Phillies are -190 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Marlins are at +160 — the steepest underdogs of the Wild Card round.

Again, it’s not too hard to understand why: These Marlins have not just the worst resume of any team in the postseason this year, but among the worst resumes of any team in modern playoff history. Their Pythagorean record, based on their run differential, comes out to 75-84, and past teams with sub-.500 Pythagorean records to make the playoffs haven’t fared that well; the Padres were swept in the first round, the 2007 Diamondbacks were swept in the NLCS, the 1984 Royals were swept in the ALCS, the 1981 Royals were swept in the first round, and the 1997 Giants were swept in the first round.

I still don’t quite trust this makeshift Marlins offense, especially with Luis Arraez’s status still up in the air, and Philly’s home-field magic is formidable. At these odds, though, I’m backing Miami: It’s possible, especially given the state of this Phillies bullpen, that Miami could work that close-game magic yet again in a best-of-three where one or two weird bounces can swing everything. They’ll certainly miss Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez, but Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera are a capable starting trio, and I think that the Phils could be particularly vulnerable to the Marlins’ close-game formula.

The Phillies have starting pitching depth, in the sense that they have a lot of guys you can give the ball to start a postseason game — but outside of Zack Wheeler, they don’t actually have a ton of guys you’d feel good about starting a postseason game. Cristopher Sanchez is unknown in October, while Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker have been disappointing this season. It’s entirely possible, if Luzardo, Cabrera and Garrett show up with their best stuff, that these games get tight late, at which point the nerves in Philly will start to jangle and Miami’s one true advantage — the back-end of their bullpen — could prove the difference. This one is closer to becoming a coin flip than people realize, and the Marlins are worth the chance here.