MLB playoff prop bets Oct. 16: Bet on Wheeler and Eovaldi to clear light total outs lines

Both MLB playoff series are in action Monday, including the start of the NLCS in Philadelphia.

The pregame narrative: We have two prop recommendations for the two games and they both involve starting pitchers. Nathan Eovaldi and Zack Wheeler have both dealt in the postseason and we expect them to cash a couple of props for us today.

Find out how we're backing Wheeler and Eovaldi in our MLB prop bets for the October 16 playoff games.

MLB oddsas of 12:29 p.m. ET 10/16/2023.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Wheeler over 17.5 outs (-104)

Wheeler will be working on extra rest when he gets the ball for Game 1 of the NLCS versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. The last time he had extra rest came just last week against the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies ace was electric.

The 33-year-old struck out 10 batters and walked one in 6.1 innings. It was his second consecutive dominant showing in the postseason after he worked 6.2 innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts and one walk in a wild-card game win over the Miami Marlins.

That means Wheeler has recorded 18-plus outs in back-to-back postseason starts at a time of the year when leashes are short.

Pitching well is the first step to staying in longer (unless your name is Jose Berrios), but neither Wheeler nor Aaron Nola have been pulled before the sixth inning over their combined four postseason starts. Even Ranger Suarez was able to go five innings in Game 4 of the NLDS.

The Phillies have shown no issues with riding their starters in a day and age where clubs rely on their bullpens more than ever before. Philadelphia starters threw the most innings of any rotation in MLB in the second half of the season.

We need six frames from Wheeler tonight and that's a number the workhorse routinely hit throughout the year. The right-hander made 32 starts, going six-plus innings in 23 of them, including both times he faced Arizona. He was one of only 14 starters to log 190-plus innings.

Key stat: In 16 starts since the all-star break, including the playoffs, Wheeler has cleared this line 14 times.

Quick pick

Eovaldi over 14.5 outs (-130): The hard-throwing righty was eased back into the rotation in September after missing six-plus weeks with a forearm strain. But the gloves appear to be off.

Eovaldi has been nasty in the postseason and has worked deeper both times than in any of his six starts last month. He has thrown 98 pitches in back-to-back outings after failing to hit the 90-pitch mark in any of his September starts (he only topped 80 pitches twice).

The veteran put up a sparkling line against the Tampa Bay Rays in the wild-card round before a near-identical showing versus the Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS.

Eovaldi has been a big-game pitcher, posting a 2.70 ERA in 13 playoff appearances. He has made eight postseason starts and topped this number seven times.

This line is way too low with the way Eovaldi is throwing combined with his playoff pedigree.