Phillies vs Diamondbacks Predictions, Picks, Odds

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19 October 2023

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Predictions, Picks, Odds

With NLCS action moving to a less hitter-friendly venue in Chase Field, our betting picks are weighing the pros and cons of the total as the Phillies and Diamondbacks each trot out starters who typically pitch to contact instead of overpowering opponents.

The Philadelphia Phillies have slugged their way to a 2-0 lead in the NLCS, and now they’ll head out to Arizona to try and finish off the upstart Diamondbacks.

Ranger Suarez has had the magic touch for Philly throughout this postseason, but will a tough MLB odds matchup tonight spell trouble for the World Series odds favorites?

Let's dive right into it with our in-depth preview, MLB picks, and MLB playoff predictions for Game 3 of Phillies vs. Diamondbacks.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks odds

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Game 3 odds

Phillies vs Diamondbacks series odds

Phillies vs Diamondbacks predictions

Ranger Suarez and Brandon Pfaadt aren’t exactly strikeout pitchers. Both men are right around the league average in that regard for the season and have largely pitched to contact with varying results. Suarez has been a ground ball guy for his career, while Pfaadt has allowed a ton of fly balls in his first big-league season.

So, I think both pitchers should really enjoy the conditions on Thursday afternoon in Arizona. Chase Field ranks 27th in park factor for home runs, making life difficult on the Philadelphia Phillies, who will be trying to lift plenty of Pfaadt’s pitches out, and the D-backs have struggled against ground-ball pitchers this year to the tune of a .714 OPS.

On top of this, the Arizona Diamondbacks have been pounding the ball into the ground this postseason, ranking dead last in ground outs to air outs, and don’t present a very credible threat to the Phillies’ left-handed maestro. Keep in mind, too, that Suarez has pitched to an excellent 2.75 ERA on the road this season compared to a 5.45 ERA at home.

Philly’s bullpen has been excellent and while the Diamondbacks’ stable has lagged behind, they should enjoy pitching in much more spacious confines.

I think the Phillies offense is for real, but they’re probably getting a little too much love from the market in this spot.

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Phillies vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay

Under 9.5

Ketel Marte to get a hit

JT Realmuto to get a hit

It’s always tricky to put together a same-game parlay when you don’t like both offenses, and that’s particularly true when you’ve got two guys who you don’t expect to rack up many strikeouts.

Still, there should be a few hits in this game, and I predict the two names listed above will be among those to reach safely.

Ketel Marte has been on an absolute roll since the postseason began, recording a hit in all seven games he’s played for an average of .333. In fact, Marte has recorded a hit in all 11 playoff games in his career, and I like him to keep that up against Suarez.

Then, I’m going to try to go for a little magic here with JT Realmuto. He’s swinging a hot bat, and he should be able to handle Pfaadt's sweeper with his excellence against breaking pitches. On top of that, he was 7-for-12 at Chase Field this year with two homers and two triples, so he should be feeling confident at the plate with some friendly road confines.

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Phillies vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I think all things are relatively equal here in the pitching matchup, which is why I have to say the Phillies will win. They have the better offense by a long shot and their bullpen has also been significantly better than Arizona’s.

The D-backs bullpen owns a 3.51 ERA compared to Philly’s 1.09 during the postseason, and Suarez has also pitched better than Pfaadt — both all year and in the playoffs. That gives me all the confidence I need in backing the Phillies, and if not for the favorable pitching conditions I’d be all over them too. I just think there’s an edge to be found here with the total.

The Phillies have commanded 71% of the bets and 75% of the handle wagered on the moneyline, while 54% of the bets and 59% of the money is on the Over. While that doesn’t make me feel so great, I feel pretty confident in our assessment that Pfaadt has turned a corner and that both starters should effectively pitch to contact well here.

Trend to know

The Diamondbacks have hit the game total Under in 51 of their last 91 games (+12.25 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Diamondbacks

Phillies vs Diamondbacks game info

Starting pitchers

Ranger Suarez (1-0, 1.04 ERA): The lefty pitched sparingly this season due to injury, but he’s been right back to himself here in October. Suarez has now worked 8 2/3 innings during the playoffs — all against the Braves — and held the best offense in baseball to just one run on four hits and a walk.

Brandon Pfaadt (0-0, 3.86 ERA): The rookie had an abysmal start to his career in the spring before he was sent down and eventually brought back up from Triple-A to better results. He’s seemed to get even better as the months have gone on, and while he struggled against Milwaukee in the Wild-Card round, he managed to hold the Dodgers scoreless over 4 1/3 innings in the NLCS.