2023 MLB playoffs: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds, time, line, NLCS Game 1 picks, predictions by proven model
The 2023 National League Championship Series gets underway on Monday evening. Citizens Bank Park hosts Game 1 of the best-of-seven NLCS matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Phillies advanced in the 2023 MLB playoffs with a four-game upset victory over the top-seeded Atlanta Braves. The Diamondbacks also pulled off a surprising upset, sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers to reach the NLCS for the first time since 2007. Zac Gallen gets the start in Game 1 for Arizona, with Zack Wheeler on the mound for Philadelphia.
First pitch is at 8:07 p.m. ET in Philadelphia. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists Philadelphia as a -167 favorite (risk $167 to win $100) on the money line, while the over/under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 7.5 in the latest Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds. Before locking in any Phillies vs. Diamondbacks picks, be sure to .
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It entered the second week of the 2023 MLB playoffs 92-74 on all top-rated MLB picks this season and has excelled on top-rated run-line picks, going 18-6 (+766). Anybody following has seen big returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Phillies vs. Diamondbacks and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB betting lines and trends for Diamondbacks vs. Phillies:
- Diamondbacks vs. Phillies money line: Phillies -167, Diamondbacks +142
- Diamondbacks vs. Phillies over/under: 7.5 runs
- Diamondbacks vs. Phillies run line: Phillies -1.5 (+129)
- Arizona: The Diamondbacks are 45-40 in 2023 road games, including playoffs
- Philadelphia: The Phillies are 53-32 in 2023 home games, including playoffs
- Diamondbacks vs. Phillies picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why you should back the Diamondbacks
Arizona stunningly swept Los Angeles in the NLDS, and the Diamondbacks are playing incredibly well. The Diamondbacks enter the NLCS with an .877 OPS and 13 home runs in five playoff games, and Arizona is averaging 6.0 runs per game with seven stolen bases in the postseason. In the regular season, Arizona led the league with 44 triples, and the team's speed is evident with 166 stolen bases. The Diamondbacks also avoid strikeouts, finishing second-best in the NL with only 1,247 punch-outs, and Corbin Carroll is one of the game's best young players.
He has a .412/.565/.824 slash line in five playoff outings, contributing two home runs, two stolen bases and six walks with only one strikeouts. Carroll also became the first rookie in MLB history with at least 25 home runs and 50 stolen bases, and he led the National League with 10 triples. On the pitching side, Arizona's starting rotation is potent, and the Diamondbacks bullpen has been outstanding in the playoffs. Opponents are hitting only .219 against Arizona relievers, with the Diamondbacks producing a 1.77 ERA with 23 strikeouts across 20.1 innings of work. See which team to back here.
Why you should back the Phillies
Philadelphia projects as the better offensive team in this matchup. The Phillies have the best OPS (.892) in the postseason, blasting 13 home runs and generating 13 doubles in just six games. Philadelphia leads MLB with nine playoff stolen bases, and the Phillies finished in the top three of the National League in home runs (220), stolen bases (141), slugging percentage (.438), OPS (.765) and total bases (2,426) during the regular season. Philadelphia also has tremendous star power, headlined by Bryce Harper.
He has a .368/.538/.842 slash line in six playoff games with three home runs and more walks (seven) and strikeouts (five). The two-time MVP also finished on a high note in the regular season with a .425 on-base percentage and a .641 slugging percentage in the final 53 regular season games. Harper is flanked by Nick Castellanos, who blasted four home runs in the series against Atlanta, and Trea Turner, who has a 1.455 OPS in the 2023 postseason. Turner has six extra-base hits in 24 at-bats, and his excellent speed has led to four stolen bases. See which team to back here.
How to make Diamondbacks vs. Phillies picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 8.8 combined runs. It also says one side on the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
