MLB Trade Deadline 2023: Next-team odds, best bets for Shohei Ohtani, Justin Verlander, more
As we inch closer to the MLB trade deadline, it's becoming increasingly clear that the player movement we see between now and Aug. 1 could shift the entire landscape of professional baseball.
One of the biggest names in sports, Shohei Ohtani, highlights the rumors as the most valuable potential rental in MLB history. Other huge names, including Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and Juan Soto, have also been the subject of whispers.
Today, we will unpack the rumors, evaluate DraftKings' "Next team odds" for the most significant stars, and make our best bets for each major player. Get your popcorn ready, baseball bettors — there may be a writer's strike in Hollywood, but the blockbusters are still coming!
MLB Next Team Odds: Best bets for stars' landing spots
Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels
The favorites on this board all make sense. Any baseball fan, pundit, and bettor will tell you that the Angels will be looking for a king's ransom for Ohtani, one of the most valuable individual talents that baseball has ever seen. He's in cruise control en route to his second unanimous AL MVP, and he's almost single-handedly keeping L.A. in the playoff race.
However, 100 games into the season, the Halos are just two games above .500 with various points of concern. Fellow former MVP Mike Trout is injured. Anthony Rendon remains one of the worst contracts in the majors. Midseason acquisitions Mike Moustakas and Eduardo Escobar have been underwhelming, and the pitching staff outside of Ohtani has been middling, at best, for the majority of the season.
The worst part is that all signs point to Ohtani heading elsewhere once this season is over. Even though the Angels have won five of their past six games, the road ahead could be dauntingfor this squad, as nine of their next 10 series will be against clubs with winning records. Is it worth forging ahead with the biggest superstar in the game if Los Angeles is going nowhere fast and likely won't be able to retain him after this season anyway?
It's a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't situation for the Angels, who will most likely get crushed by fans in the short-term if they deal him and slammed by the fans in the long-term if they hold and then he bolts in the offseason. Our gut instinct is that the Angels won't get any offers that come close to their asking price, so Ohtani is likely to stay put. However, if he does move, the Dodgers and Giants seem like frontrunners to land his services.
Both Cali organizations have plenty of young assets and the financial flexibility to toss the most lucrative long-term contract Ohtani's way once this season concludes. Both squads are in the NL, so the Halos would only have to worry about going against him in interleague games. They are also both contenders with proven track records of success. As a bonus, both L.A. and San Francisco would keep Ohtani in nice weather and as close to his native Japan as you can get in the continental U.S.
The only dark horse in this race would be the Mariners (Any other team, +1700) and Red Sox (+2800). Just a couple of weeks ago, fans were chanting "Come to Seattle" during every Ohtani at-bat at the All-Star Game at T-Mobile Park. Ohtani seemed touched by the gesture, and he mentioned that he spent two offseasons in Seattle and liked it there. But the Mariners are just 50-50 — even worse than the Angels — and it would be a massive gamble for Seattle to clean out its farm system and hope that Ohtani is more than just the best three-month rental in sports history.
The Red Sox, however, have looked much better as of late and could swoop in as the sleeper that acquires Ohtani and convinces him to stick around long-term. Sox owner John Henry knows good business decisions, and while baseball sometimes appears to be a back-burner priority in Henry's mind, he knows that Ohtani would bring an infinite boost in value to whatever team acquires him. Boston has also been no stranger to signing players of Asian descent, with a long history of successful Japanese and Korean players. Ohtani would quickly become the face of sports in Boston, a city with ravenous fans and immense sports pride. And, oh, the bombs Shohei would hit over that Green Monster.
Betting advice: Fade all of it. Nobody truly knows where he is going, not even Ohtani or the Angels. Anything could happen between now and August, including the superstar slugger/ace staying put. But -265 is too much juice to bet on the status quo, and the Dodgers and Giants are too volatile to trust with a wager. It seems lame, but until we hear any actual concrete rumors, your best bet is to bet nothing at all.
Justin Verlander, SP, Mets
Now here's a guy who we do believe will be shopped, and with how unlucky the Mets franchise has been over the past year and a half, we don't think there will be too many scraps in Verlander's scrapbook. Many teams could use JV to bolster their starting rotation and help with a run at the World Series, but the club we're hearing most prevalently on the rumor mill is the Giants.
The Giants cleared a ton of money off their budget to pursue slugger Aaron Judge and star shortstop Carlos Correa, but Judge ultimately re-signed with the Yankees and Correa ended up signing a mega-deal with the Twins (the latter of which was clearly a dodged bullet for San Francisco). Now they're realistic contenders with money to spend, sitting seven games above .500 and tied in the NL West with the free-falling Diamondbacks.
A three-man rotation of Justin Verlander and All-Stars Logan Webb and Alex Cobb would make San Francisco a tough out for any NL squad, even the mighty Braves and Dodgers. San Francisco has the assets and the kind of money that can keep JV around for the remainder of his playing days. It's up to the Mets to finally accept they aren't going anywhere and Verlander to waive his no-trade clause, both of which we think will happen before Aug. 1.
Betting advice: Bet Verlander to land with the Giants (+600).
Blake Snell, SP, Padres
Snell has also been brought up in the Twittersphere as a potential trade chip, with the Padres struggling to contend in the NL West. San Diego is 10 games behind the Dodgers and six games behind a wild-card spot, so it might not make much sense for the Friars to retain Snell's services for the remainder of his contract year. He's having an amazing season — with an MLB-best 2.67 ERA and 143 strikeouts in 108 innings pitched — so he could be a massively impactful rental for a team in contention.
Call us crazy, but we're looking at the Rays as a significant sleeper in the Snell race. Tampa Bay's former ace has openly spoken about how difficult it was to leave the Rays and part ways with Tampa pitching coach Kyle Snyder, Snell's close friend and mentor. Now that the Rays are legitimate World Series contenders again with a fellow Cy Young candidate in Shane McClanahan and a dynamic offense led by Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena, this could be a story with a happy ending for all parties.
Beyond Tampa Bay, we wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles, Rangers, Dodgers, or Astros made a run at Snell. These squads are the legitimate powerhouses that likely view themselves as one or two pieces away from catching the Braves as World Series favorites. However, considering the Padres have reportedly said they are not going to trade Snell or closing pitcher Josh Hader, per ESPN's Alden Gonzalez, we're not placing a bunch of bets here. The only bet we like as a small lottery wager is the Rays at +3000.
Betting advice: Stay away, or put a $10 wager on the Rays (+3000) and root for the Hollywood story.
