AL Preview: Young Orioles To Reach World Series Despite Low Payroll

With exhibition play right around the corner, the regular baseball season isn’t that far away. And here’s a prediction to ponder: this will be the year several streaks come to a crashing halt.

The Houston Astros, minus the magic of retired manager Dusty Baker, won’t reach the Championship Series for the eighth straight season. The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals will end years of futility and become Central Division contenders. And Juan Soto, in his first American League season, will finally capture his first Most Valuable Player award now that two-time winner Shohei Ohtani has vacated the circuit.

Here’s how the teams look at the start of spring training:

After winning 101 games last year, the youth-powered Baltimore Orioles could be even better after landing former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers. After the success of Adley Rutchman and Gunnar Henderson in recent seasons, the Birds have another Rookie of the Year candidate in Jackson Holliday, son of Matt Holliday. Baltimore has money to play with, as its projected payroll of $114.4 million ranks third-from-lowest in MLB, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. New team ownership helps too, with David Rubenstein’s group taking over from the Peter Angelos family. But a Kyle Braddish spring injury (UCL sprain) could pose problems for the pitching staff.

Like Baltimore, whose one-year, $15,637,000 contract with Burnes expires this fall, the Yankees are gambling that Soto (one year for $31.5 million) will be more than a one-year rental. His lethal left-handed bat bolsters an offense led by Aaron Judge ($360 million through 2031) while Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole ($324 million through 2028) returns to lead a pitching staff with several question-marks. Because of their three superstars, the Yankees rank third in the majors with a projected luxury-tax payroll of $305.9 million, Cot’s reports.

Toronto hasn’t reached the World Series since 1993, a streak likely to continue after the Jays were out-bid for Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cody Bellinger, and Blake Snell, all top-tier free agents. Slugger Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. could be primed for a strong comeback now that he’s entering the walk year of his contract.

A frugal franchise that somehow won 99 games last year, the Rays will try to survive a wave of pitching injuries, coupled with the trade of erstwhile ace Tyler Glasnow. Cot’s Contracts places Tampa Bay’s $119 million payroll 25th among the 30 clubs.

The Red Sox have Rafael Devers, Fenway Park, and a prayer. Newcomer Vaughn Grissom and other young players will get long looks this spring – especially if they’re pitchers. Devers owns the most lucrative contract on the team, according to Cot’s, at $313,500,000 (2024-33).

How they’ll finish: Orioles, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox

After finishing second in a weak division last season, the Detroit Tigers have their sights on a divisional title for the first time since 2014. Miguel Cabrera has retired but Riley Greene is back, Mark Canha has arrived, and veterans Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda boost the rotation. The Tigers have a projected luxury tax payroll of $120.4 million – 24th among the 30 teams – even with the new additions, Cot’s Contracts reports.

Not the same team that pounded an AL-record 307 home runs in 2019, the Twins still get good pop from Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa, whose $33,777,777 tops the club by a wide margin, according to Spotrac. Starters Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan lead a pitching staff that will miss free agent deserter Sonny Gray but a bullpen led by fireballer Jhoan Duran is in great shape.

More than any other club, Kansas City surprised the baseball world by signing free agent pitchers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, both starters, and southpaw Will Smith, a closer who has won World Series rings with three different teams in the last three years. Position players Hunter Renfroe and Garrett Hampson, also free-agent signees, should help a lineup led by 30/30 shortstop Bobby Witt, Jr. and veteran catcher Salvatore Perez. Witt’s new deal pays him $288,777,777 through 2034. Only five American Leaguers have bigger contracts.

After sinking to 76-86 last summer, the poorly-named Guardians lost more than they gained this winter. The Naylor brothers, Josh and Bo, combined for 37 homers in 2023, when Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez were the best bats. Youngster Tanner Bibee will become ace of the staff if the club trades Shane Bieber before he leaves as a free agent this fall. He’s finishing up a deal that will pay him $13,125,000, according to Spotrac.

Fans on Chicago’s South Side were crushed by their club’s 101-loss season last year. Luis Robert, Jr., Eloy Jimenez, and Andrew Vaughn lead a potent attack but the pitching isn’t as potent, with not much behind No. 1 starter Dylan Cease, whose 33 starts led the league last year. Six free agent departures during the off-season did not help – but a projected new lakefront ballpark should. The Sox pay Cease $8,000,000 a year, but four teammates make more. Still, Cot’s says the Sox rank only 23rd in payroll ($129.1 million).

How they’ll finish: Tigers, Twins, Royals, Guardians, White Sox

Although Houston and Texas posted identical 90-72 records last season, both seemed poised for similar seasons: heavy hitting balanced by less reliable pitching. Aging Astros ace Justin Verlander suffered a shoulder injury early this spring, pushing him back a couple of weeks in his preparation and making it even more doubtful he can win 300 games. Rookie Houston manager Joe Espada has big bats in Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and recently-resigned Jose Altuve ($125 million over five years), but Alex Bregman is a potential free agent this fall. Starters Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier will get help from newly-signed free agent closer Josh Hader (five years, $95 million).

The Rangers could have used Hader after blowing 33 saves last summer. Manager Bruce Bochy, seeking his fifth world championship, will bank on starters Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray, backed by emerging relievers Jose Leclerc and Josh Sborz. Texas needs to score more runs than it allows but could do just that with World Series MVP Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, and rookie Evan Carter. Seager’s $325 million deal runs through 2031.

The only team that has never won a pennant, the Seattle Mariners revolve around superstar center-fielder Julio Rodriguez and pitchers Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby. The M’s beefed up their lineup with free agents Mitch Garver and Mitch Haniger but lost Teoscar Hernandez and Jarred Kelenic. The uniquely-structured Rodriguez contract would be worth $469.6 million over 17 years – – topping the Mike Trout deal for overall value – if he wins two MVPs during that stretch.

After losing two-time MVP Shohei Ohtani, the Angels swiped Atlanta coach Ron Washington, who won when he managed Texas and is now the oldest active pilot at 71. The Halos still have Trout, a three-time MVP, plus Brandon Drury, Taylor Ward, and injury-prone Anthony Rendon but that might not be enough to support a shaky pitching staff led by Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, and likely-to-be-overused star closer Carlos Estevez.

The Athletics are still in the American League but maybe not in Oakland much longer. The team has one foot out the door, headed for Las Vegas, and will try to keep afloat with 30-homer man Brent Rooker; fleet Esteury Ruiz, who led the league with 67 steals; and rookie closer Mason Miller, owner of a triple-digit fastball. The once-proud A’s went 50-112 last year and could be even worse in this lame-duck season. The only department in which the A’s lead the league is lowest payroll: $77.3 million as projected by Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

How they’ll finish: Astros, Rangers, Mariners, Angels, Athletics

Wild-Card Series: Yankees over Tigers; Rangers over Blue Jays

Division Series: Orioles over Astros; Yankees over Rangers

Championship Series: Orioles over Yankees

World Series: Braves over Orioles