MLB World Series Best Bets, Predictions, Odds: Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Vaughn Dalzell shares how to approach betting the World Series between the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Texas Rangers (-170) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+145)
Why Texas (-170) Can Win
The Rangers are 9-3 in the playoffs, including a perfect 8-0 on the road. Texas will have the liberty of playing at home in Games 1 and 2, where are 1-2 in the postseason.
I expect that to regress to the norm, especially since Houston is a better road team than home team, which Texas just beat.
Texas is hitting .265 as a team through 12 postseason games with a .825 OPS, 113 hits, 22 homers, and 67 RBIs. The pitching rotation holds a 3.57 ERA, .241 OBA, three saves on four chances, and 88 strikeouts to 38 walks.
Teammates Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi have been amazing in the postseason. Montgomery is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA (five games and four starts), while Eovaldi is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA (four games and four starts). That 1-2 punch has carried Texas, along with the stellar offense and road play.
Why Arizona (+140) Can Win
The Diamondbacks are one of the best stories in baseball and playing in a challenging NL West with the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants, the DBacks were an afterthought when it came to World Series aspirations.
So much of an afterthought that Arizona was +12500 or 125-to-1 to win the World Series in the preseason. As it stands, Arizona is the longest longshot to make the World Series and could be the longest longshot to win it as well.
Zac Gallen (5.24 ERA) was an NL CY Young candidate entering the season and he will start Game 1 of the World Series. Merrill Kelly (2.54 ERA) and Brandon Pfaadt (2.70 ERA) have arguably out-pitched Gallen in the postseason, going a combined 2-1 through seven starts with a 1.53 OBA and .246.
If Gallen goes out in Game 1 and pitches like a CY Young pitcher, then Arizona is alive and well to win the World Series.
With hitters like Ketel Marte (.358), Corbin Carroll (.295), Gabriel Moreno (.279), and Geraldo Perdomo (.278) all getting hot at the right time, there is no better time than now to win a World Series for Arizona against Texas, who was not expected to be here either.
The Best Bets
Texas Rangers (-170) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+145)
The series length best bets would be either Over 5.5 games (-170) or Over 6.5 games (+195). The previous four World Series all went six or longer and eight of the past 10. The two series that ended early were 4-1 finishes. The last four-game sweep in a World Series was in 2012, so I wouldn’t wager on that.
In the MVP market, Adolis Garcia leads the field at +500, which is not a surprise since he is the hottest hitter right now. Garcia has five homers in the last four games with 13 RBIs and eight hits. He is a safe bet if you like Texas, but don’t ignore the value for starting pitchers Eovaldi (+1600) or Montgomery (+2200).
For Arizona, Ketel Marte (+1000) and Corbin Carroll (+1000) are the favorites, but if you believe Arizona wins Game 1, then you might want to consider starting pitcher Zac Gallen (+2000), as he will start at least twice in this series, including Game 1 at Texas.
A hitter has won the World Series MVP in 12 of the last 14 postseasons, so the value will lie on the Garcia, Marte, and Carroll’s of the series. The two pitchers that won World Series MVP’s in that span were Stephen Strasburg in 2019 and Madison Bumgarner in 2014.
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