World Series Betting Preview and Predictions
After a boring and predictable MLB playoffs, we’re down to the expected World Series matchup – the Texas Rangers vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks. This, of course, is sarcasm at its finest. The #5 ranked, 90-win Rangers, who choked away the division championship to Houston, will host the #6 ranked, 84-win Diamondbacks. Wacky and wild stuff. Let’s try to make some sense of it all and place some winning bets in our World Series betting preview and predictions article. Play ball!
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World Series Betting Preview and Predictions
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday 10/27, 8:03 pm EST – Game 1
Saturday 10/28, 8:03 pm EST – Game 2
Monday 10/30, 8:03 pm EST – Game 3
Tuesday, 10/31, 8:03 pm EST – Game 4
Wednesday 11/1, 8:03 pm EST – Game 5 (if necessary)
Friday 11/3, 8:03 pm EST – Game 6 (if necessary)
Saturday 11/4, 8:03 pm EST – Game 7 (if necessary)
Pitching Matchup
These two teams went through the regular season with average to below-average pitching staffs (at least according to the stats). In major pitching stat categories, the Rangers ended up in the 12-18 range, while the Diamondbacks were a bit worse, ending up 19-20. But the regular season is history – we’re talking about the playoffs now.
Lo and behold, both teams’ pitching staffs have been carrying the day for them during the postseason, ranking among the best of the 12 teams that made the playoffs. The Rangers are tied with the Philadelphia Phillies for tops in the playoffs with six quality starts from their starting pitchers, and they’ve shaved their ERA down from the regular season average of 4.28 to 3.67 (their WHIP has stayed the same – 1.27).
The Diamondbacks lead the playoffs with six saves and have really got stingy with their runs allowed, going from 4.48 in the regular season to 3.23 in the playoffs, while their WHIP has remained steady (1.32 to 1.25).
While, as of writing, the World Series pitching rotations haven’t been announced, the Rangers are sure to run out Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi (Game 1’s starter) to the bump as frequently as they can go, as they both have been outstanding for the team this postseason. After that, it’s a crapshoot, with Andrew Heaney and Max Scherzer both starting games but getting rocked. This also goes for postseason closer Jose Leclerc, who has had three straight bad outings.
The Diamondbacks counter with three pitchers seemingly locked into the starting rotation – Zac Gallen (who will start Game 1), Brandon Pfaadt, and Merrill Kelly. Ace Gallen has given up nine runs over his last 11 innings, so the Snakes will need him to get back to form. Pfaadt and Kelly, meanwhile, have been stellar. Closer Paul Sewald and setup man Kevin Ginkel have yet to give up a run in 17 combined postseason innings pitched.
Based on the playoffs, the Diamondbacks should have the pitching advantage in this series.
Hitting Matchup
The Rangers’ high-priced lineup really came through at the plate this season, ranking top three in the major leagues in all major batting statistical categories. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, were middling, ranking 13-22 in batting categories. This trend has continued into the postseason, with Texas scoring the most runs in the playoffs – 20 more than Arizona has in the same number of games. They’re getting on base, they’re hitting home runs – they’re doing it all. Arizona is relying more on speed, with 16 stolen bags in 12 games.
Adolis Garcia has carried the biggest bat for the Rangers, winning ALCS MVP due to his slugging exploits. He’s slashing .327/.352/.750 for the postseason with seven homers and 20 RBIs. Other than the slumping Marcus Semien, all of the Rangers bats have been cooking, with Corey Seager, Josh Jung, Evan Carter, and Mitch Garver all having an outstanding postseason.
The Diamondbacks have the blazing-hot Ketel Marte, the NLCS MVP, leading the way for them. He is of the record-setting postseason hitting streak of 16 (and counting). His playoff slash of .358/.382/.604 is impressive. Also hitting well for the Snakes are the rookie duo of Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll, as well as Gabriel Moreno.
Advantage, Rangers.
World Series Best Bets
Hate to go chalk here, but I have to lean to the home team – the Texas Rangers – to win their first-ever World Series once the calendar turns to November (baseball shouldn’t be played in November, but I digress). They just have too many big bats in their lineup and two solid starters that should pull them through (not to mention the home-field advantage).
But I don’t expect this to be a cakewalk, as the Diamondbacks are a scrappy bunch who aren’t going to go down easily. I think the series going to six or seven games is a pretty solid bet.
Texas Rangers to win World Series (-170), Series Over 5.5 Games (-170)
If I’m expecting the Rangers to win, I’m expecting Adolis Garcia to keep up his hot play and lead them to the promised land. With seven homers in 12 postseason games, getting +400 for Garcia to hit the most home runs in the World Series is a solid play. No other player on either team has more than four dingers in the playoffs. And if Garcia is going to go yard the most, then why not double down on him and get +500 for him to win World Series MVP?!
Adolis Garcia to record most HRs (+400), Adolis Garcia to win World Series MVP (+500)
You can also get even more information on the World Series by listening to the MLB Gambling Podcast, which includes a World Series preview. They’ve got daily episodes with MLB picks to make you the smartest guy (or gal) at the bar.
