MLS Weekend Match Predictions, Picks and Odds for April 22-23

Betting Preview for MLS Matches on Sunday

Sportsmemo MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his MLS weekend match predictions and picks around key matches including CF Montreal vs New York Red Bulls as well as New England Revolution vs Sporting Kansas City. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

Asian Handicap: NY Red Bulls -0.25 | Total: 2.25

If you read my Power Rankings article on Wednesday, you will see where Montreal fits in this season. Dead last.

They have allowed 17 goals which is the most in the league and they have scored just three which all came in their win over Philadelphia of all teams. Otherwise, they were held scoreless in their other six matches.

Montreal average 0.83 xG per 90 minutes this season which is dead last. They generate 9.9 shots per match with 2.4 on target which rank 3rd worst and dead last, respectively.

The allow an average of 15.7 shots each game including 6.1 on target, ranking 2nd worst and dead last, respectively. I think you get the idea.

On the flip side, NYRB has the league’s best defense according to xG, allowing just 0.78 per match, one of only five teams allowing less than 1.0. The reason they are excelling defensively is they simply don’t allow many shots.

An average of 6.8 shots per match with 2.0 on target both rank 1st in the league by a wide margin with the next best team allowing 9.7 and 2.8, respectively.

That all makes taking NYRB at the plus money price very tempting. However, the Red Bulls have scored more than one goal just one time this season settling for five draws. Their strong defense and inept offense have seen seven of their eight matches finish Under the total.

Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals -110

Asian Handicap: New England -0.75 | Total: 2.75

We already have one MLS record on our hands this season thanks to the likes of Kansas City. No team through eight matches has scored as few as goals as SKC’s two. Meanwhile, Bruce Arena’s Revolution sit atop the East with 17 points on a 5-2-1 record. At home, they remain unbeaten with three wins and a draw and have conceded just one goal.

New England was smacked by the defending champs 0-4 but are unbeaten in their other seven matches conceding a total of just three goals.

\Latif Blessing seems to be finding his role on his new team after coming over from the champs, LAFC, during the offseason. The midfield is alive and clicking with him in the lineup. It also helps that their keeper, Djordje Petrovic, has been lights out.

xG backs up SKC’s misery this season. Only last place Montreal has averaged less per match than SKC’s 0.89. I don’t like the chances of a team not creating quality chances vs a keeper absolutely squashing everything.

Prediction: New England  Revolution -140

There is the Dynamo at home, then there is the Dynamo on the road. Houston is off to a perfect 3-0 start at home this season and have yet to concede a goal vs Austin, New York City FC and LA Galaxy. Only NY Red Bulls and Los Angeles FC are allowing less xGA than Houston at just 0.77 per 90 minutes while they are generating 1.70.

However, when they hit the road, they have been a completely different team with three losses and one draw and the 4th worst xG differential in the league averaging just 0.83 while allowing 2.00.

Miami made my short list of the worst five teams in the league in my Power Rankings article. They opened the season in very promising fashion with two wins but have since lost five straight while failing to score in four of them. They are creating the 3rd fewest xG per match at 0.91 while allowing 1.46, the 7th most.

I’ll give them credit for trying to do something about it though as they just signed Kamal Miller from Montreal in an effort to bolster their defense.

However, assuming Miller even plays, you can’t expect a huge impact in his first match. It will take some time to develop with his new team. Simply ride the trends to another Houston home win on Saturday.

Prediction: Houston Dynamo -110

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