NASCAR Betting Guide: Daytona 500

It's the week after the Super Bowl. You're bummed. There's no NFL to bet, the NBA is about to hit its All-Star break, and the thought of betting the XFL makes you dry heave.

That's entirely a projection. I'd rather get hit by a bus than bet the XFL. More power to you if you disagree.

For me, though, NASCAR is the savior.

This Sunday is the Daytona 500, the biggest race of the year and the first points-paying race of a new season. It's a high-chaos track where longshots can actually win, something we won't get for all races.

And some of those longshots are actually good bets based on my numbers.

For each race, I'll run my own simulations, and then I'll use those to try to identify good value bets based on FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR odds. We'll run through early-week bets here, and then if more values arise later in the week, I'll circle back and add them to the same post.

Which bets stand out before cars hit the track for qualifying on Wednesday? Here are my favorites.

Kevin Harvick to Win (+2500)

Kevin Harvick was available at +3000 as recently as yesterday at FanDuel, so before betting this, shop around to see if you can find that number lingering.

But even at his new number, I've got Harvick as a value.

Harvick hasn't won on a superspeedway since 2010 and is entering his age-47 (and final) season. Given that drivers typically peak in their age-39 season, it's possible Harvick has lost his touch on this track type.

I don't think that's the case. Just two years ago, Harvick had two top-fives and three top-10s in four superspeedway races. Last year, he had a top-15 average running position in all four races at Daytona and Talladega; he just didn't convert it into great finishes.

Harvick has a knack for being around at the end, and that can sometimes be enough. As a result, my model has his win odds at 5.0%, up from 3.9% implied at +2500. That's a big enough edge where I'm okay overlooking the age concerns and betting that Harvick will begin his retirement tour with a bang.

Justin Haley to Win (+5000)

On the opposite end of the age spectrum, you've got Justin Haley. This will be his age-24 season, and he already has a Cup Series win at Daytona under his belt. That win was a fluke thanks to weather, but his track record beyond that makes him a great win bet.

Haley has 16 races at Daytona and Talladega across the Xfinity Series and Craftsman Truck Series. He has four wins, two runner-ups, and another fourth-place finish in a truck during his age-19 season. Those are in lower series, but given how young he was, it's a huge mark in his favor.

Haley's Cup Series record isn't as dazzling, but a lot of that came in poor equipment. Last year was his first full season in a competitive ride, but he did have another sixth-place run in 2021 even before getting more ponies under the hood.

Kaulig Racing seemed to come on strong toward the end of last year. Haley had two top-fives in the final seven races on two very different tracks. If they maintain any of those gains, you'll be giving slightly better equipment to a guy who has proven he can dominate this kind of track.

As a result, my model has Haley's win odds at 2.6%, up from 2.0% implied. It's not a huge edge, but given Haley's track record, I'm willing to bet it regardless.

Todd Gilliland to Win (+10000); Gilliland to Finish Top 10 (+500)

It has been a rough week for Todd Gilliland. He learned recently that he won't be in the No. 38 car full-time this year, ceding the seat to Zane Smith in six races.

But I wouldn't be shocked to see Gilliland make the call to keep him out of the car a tough one on Sunday.

Unlike Haley, Gilliland doesn't have the blazing track record on pack tracks in lower series. He did, though, have a pair of podiums at Talladega in the Craftsman Truck Series. He's also the son of David Gilliland, who notched six of his eight career Cup Series top-10 finishes on pack tracks. It was his best track type, and he's likely passed some of that down to Todd.

Similar to Harvick, Gilliland ran better than his results would indicate on superspeedways last year. He had a top-15 average running position in three of four races at Daytona and Talladega. He actually did convert one into a good finish, winding up seventh in the playoff Talladega race. In other words, he didn't do anything to make us think he's a negative on this track type.

Gilliland's in equipment good enough to win. His teammate, Michael McDowell, won the 500 in 2021. My model puts Gilliland's win odds at 2.6%, which I think is too high. However, we've got plenty of wiggle room to be off on him while still being higher than his implied odds of 1.0%.

As far as the top-10 odds, I have Gilliland at 25.2% there versus 16.7% implied. If you're picking just one bet or the other, the top-10 is a really nice value and gives you lots of flexibility. But with both grading out well, I'm fine double-dipping and hoping Gilliland can give this puppy a run.