NASCAR Atlanta Odds & Quaker State 400 Picks

One week after forging new frontiers in the Chicago street race, the NASCAR Cup Series drivers will have to negotiate 400 miles over a treacherous superspeedway-style track in Atlanta Motor Speedway. Get odds and betting picks here!

The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Atlanta Motor Speedway for a second and final time this season to contest the Quaker State 400 on Sunday night.

Atlanta has gone from a "meat and potatoes" 1.5-mile oval to the NASCAR equivalent of a sizzling fajita since being reconfigured ahead of the 2022 season, as it's now a bump-draft locale ala Daytona or Talladega. The last three races here have seen two-by-two pack racing for long stretches, and of course, plenty of big wrecks.

Read on for our full analysis and betting picks to help you navigate this tricky event.

Odds to win 2023 Quaker State 400

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Quaker State 400 field

Atlanta Motor Speedway may not stretch for 2.5 miles like Daytona, but the 1.5-mile quad oval's dramatic reconfiguration ahead of the 2022 season has yielded superspeedway-style pack racing all the same, and the initial odds reflect the unpredictable nature of that.

Kyle Busch opened as the +1,000 favorite, and while he has two victories in 27 career starts at Atlanta, he's yet to win on this new configuration. Chase Elliott, last year's Quaker State 400 champion, is the +1,100 second-choice.

Joey Logano won the most recent Cup Series race here — the Ambetter Health 400 — on March 19, and is the co-third choice in the wagering at +1,200 with Penske teammate Ryan Blaney.

William Byron, the only other Cup Series driver with a win on the Atlanta "superspeedway," is next in the odds at +1,400, tied with Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin.

There are 15 drivers with odds at +2,500 or below, and 28 drivers at +4,500 or lower.

Quaker State 400 picks and predictions

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Quaker State 400 favorites

Joey Logano (+1,200)

Prior to his spring race win, Logano's last six Atlanta starts prior saw him finish 23rd, 10th, 15th, 19th, ninth, and 26th. He then dominated in March. Logano has also finished second, first, and 30th on drafting tracks this season.

Ryan Blaney (+1,200)

Blaney was fourth in 2020, won this race in 2021, and ran fifth in the July race of 2021. He was also 17th and fifth, respectively, in the pair of Atlanta races last year, and seventh this spring.

Blaney is as good as anyone now on superspeedways, so if this race runs like Daytona/Talladega again, you’ll be happy to snatch him up. He has three Top-8 finishes in as many tries on drafting tracks this season.

Ross Chastain (+1,600)

Kurt Busch won here in this car in 2021, while Chastain was runner-up in both Atlanta races in 2022. Chastain also won on a drafting track at Talladega last spring. Now that he’s halted his winless skid, watch out on Sunday.

Quaker State 400 sleepers

Brad Keselowski (+1,400)

Keselowski was 12th and 18th, respectively, a year ago at Atlanta, but has a vastly improved car this time around (runner-up this spring). He has seven career wins at drafting tracks, and Keselowski was leading the Daytona 500 with five laps to go this year. He was runner-up here and fifth at Talladega this season.

Christopher Bell (+1,600)

The only Toyota play I’d be interested in. Bell was third and first, respectively, on this very race track in his two Xfinity Series starts on it. He won the Truck Series race in 2017 to go along with being eighth here last July. He was third this past spring along with a third in the Daytona 500 and an eighth at Talladega.

Kevin Harvick (+3,500)

Was only 21st and 12th here a year ago a,nd 33rd this past spring. He was 12th and 21st in Daytona and Talladega, respectively, this year too. However, he’s in a Ford and crashed out this past spring while leading. Harvick has made a name for himself in Atlanta so in his final start and at a good number, why not?

Corey LaJoie (+3,500)

Was in the Top 5 for much of the final stage in this race last year, was fifth in this very race last spring, and fourth this spring.

Quaker State 400 fades

Kyle Busch (+1000)

His last three Atlanta finishes are 33rd, 20th, and 10th. While he did win Talladega, this car he's running was only 28th and 29th, respectively, here in 2022. To be the favorite with these results? I’ll pass.

Chase Elliott (+1100)

Elliott ran 38th in Daytona and 12th in Talladega this year. Despite two superspeedway wins last year, including here a year ago, he’s not had the success on these types of tracks this season. He’s cutting a lot off his points deficit and I don’t know if you can take the risks necessary to win here this weekend when a Top 5 would be a better play.

Denny Hamlin (+1400)

Toyota has struggled in Atlanta, and Hamlin was only 29th and 25th, respectively, in his pair of Atlanta starts a year ago. He was sixth here this past spring, but was 17th at both Daytona and Talladega in early 2023.

William Byron (+1400)

Byron won last year’s spring race here after leading 111 laps in the process. The thing is, he was 30th and 32nd since, and 34th at Daytona, and seventh at Talladega this year. 

Kyle Larson (+1800)

Now that this race shifted to a speedway type of racing package, that negates Kyle Larson’s advantage. Larson has never won a superspeedway race and has just one Top 5 in 37 starts on them at that. He was 30th and 13th here last year, 31st this year, and 18th and 33rd, respectively, in Daytona and Talladega in 2023.

Quaker State 400 prop pick: Top Manufacturer - Ford

Chevrolet won five of the six drafting track races a year ago and are 2-for-3 this season. Overall, they’re 7-for-9. 

However, I like Ford play the best. They led 221 of the 260 laps here in the spring and were bar none the top manufacturer overall. 

Toyota hasn’t won here since 2014, so it’s down to Chevy vs. Ford, and you get the team at the second best odds of the three. 

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Atlanta track analysis

Sunday will mark the 119th race at Atlanta Motor Speedway for the NASCAR Cup Series. This is one of the most historic tracks on the schedule. However, Atlanta was also a popular track on the schedule due to the aged surface.

When the track was reconfigured in 1997, they also repaved it. That was also the last time that the asphalt has been replaced. That stat made it the third-oldest surface in NASCAR, trailing only Dover (1995) and Fontana (1996). Now another repave and partial reconfiguration once again make this race a brand new ball game. In fact, not only did both races a year ago looked more like Daytona and Talladega than Atlanta of old, so did the one this past spring. I expect similar circumstances this time around too. 

I’d look more towards the Chevrolet and Ford camps for the victor, and not to look for much out of the Toyota camp. The Toyota drivers have won just twice in the Peach State and have failed to reach victory lane there since 2014. They're also 2-for-18 in Talladega and 1-for-8 at Daytona in recent years.

Hendrick Motorsports swept both races last year, while Team Penske won in the spring. Chevrolet won both Atlanta races last year and both Talladega races in 2022, as well the spring race this year, the summer Daytona race a year ago, and the 2023 Daytona 500.

However, Ford has flipped the script. While Chevy did win at Daytona, Ford’s led 122 of 212 laps. Here, Ford led 221 of 260 laps. In Talladega, Ford led 88 of 196. 

So yes, Chevy has won seven of the last eight superspeedway races, but Fords have shown the most speed on them. Chevy led 44 laps in Daytona, trailing Toyota’s 46 too. For here, they led 19 laps, Toyota led 20. In ‘Dega, they led 43 laps compared to Toyota’s 65. 

Fords are leading, Chevys are winning, and Toyota’s are just there.

• Since stages began, the race winner scored stage points in every stage minus one race (2019). In 2021, the eventual race winner finished in the Top 3 in each stage. In fact, since 2017, the winner finished in the Top 5 in seven of the eight Stage 1s, including six in the Top 3 to go along with the Top 8 in seven of the eight Stage 2’s.
• Joey Logano was first in Stage 1 and second in Stage 2 this spring. 
• Chase Elliott swept both stages in his July race win last season. William Byron won the first stage of the 2022 spring race and was ninth in Stage 2.