NASCAR Cup: Toyota Owners 400 Betting Analysis & Prediction

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31 March 2023

NASCAR Cup: Toyota Owners 400 Betting Analysis & Prediction

After making the first stop at a street track on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule this season, at the glorious Circuit of the Americas (CoTA), NASCAR returns to oval racing and America’s best short track, Richmond Raceway.

While 23XI Racing-Toyota’sTyler Reddick’s masterful performance at CoTA makes him an instant favorite on future street tracks on the NASCAR schedule, it’s Hendrick Motorsports William Byron who is emerging as a threat to finish in the top five and win every weekend.

We’ll review the recent performances, odds, and results at Richmond in our Toyota Owners 400 prediction.

To help make our Toyota Owners 400 prediction, we need to review the NASCAR odds.

Here are our favorites to win or finish in the top five:

Notably absent from this list Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman (+1600), who currently sits atop the Drivers’ Championship NASCAR standings.

NASCAR Cup Series Toyota Owners 400: 400 Laps (300 mi)

Location of the race: Richmond Raceway, Richmond, Virginia.

Date and Time: Sunday, April 2nd, 2023, 3:30 p.m. ET.

How to Watch: FS1 | NASCAR Live

Six current Cup Series drivers have won on the short track at Richmond.

Richard Childress Racing and every weekend betting favorite Kyle Busch is the second-most winningest Cup Series driver at Richmond with five wins (2009-2012, 2018).

Stewart-Haas Racing-Ford’s Kevin Harvick won this race in 2013. Harvick has two race wins and four top-five finishes on short tracks since 2020.

Joe Gibbs Racing-Toyota’s Martin Truex Jr. has a preseason short track win at the Clash at the Coliseum and won at Richmond in 2019, while teammate Denny Hamlin won in 2022.

Current Drivers’ Championship leader Alex Bowman won in 2021. Joey Logano’s two wins at Richmond (2014, 2017) were Ford’s first wins at Richmond since 1997.

The last step in our Toyota Owners 400 prediction is to make our NASCAR Cup Series picks.

In short track races since February 2020, Kyle Larson has had one race win and five top-five finishes on short tracks. Disappointingly, Larson has had only two top-five finishes this season.

Joey Logano has six top fives in 15 short track races but has won twice at Richmond pre-2020. Logano has three top-ten finishes – including a win in Atlanta – this season, but is coming off a 28th-place finish at CoTA: his second sub-25th position.

Martin Truex Jr. is a short-track specialist and has to be considered as a pick for the potential winner at Richmond in 2023 and to finish in the top five. Impressively, Truex Jr. has had three race wins and seven top-five finishes on short tracks since 2020.

Joe Gibbs Racing-Toyota Christopher Bell has been impressive with three top-five and four top-ten finishes this season. Bell finished 31st at CoTA but does better on short tracks than street circuits, with one race win and five top-five finishes on short tracks since 2020.

Hendrick Motorsports William Byron is emerging as a real threat to win on any circuit configuration this season. Adding Byron’s back-to-back wins at Las Vegas and Phoenix with his impressive performance at CoTA, fighting with Reddick for the race lead and winning stage one, ultimately being caught up in overtime caution chaos and dropping from second to fifth place.

Byron’s recent record at short tracks is impressive, having one win and six top-five finishes in 15 short track starts.