NASCAR Loudon Odds & Crayon 301 Picks

Is Joe Gibbs Racing primed to break out of a slump at Loudon? See why our NASCAR betting picks are high on Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. heading into the Crayon 301 at NHMS.

NASCAR lives free in New Hampshire this weekend, and all but one driver's hopes of winning the Crayon 301 will die on Sunday. 

The Cup Series Circuit makes its only stop at Loudon for 2023 on July 16, and with the playoffs inching closer, the onus for drivers to punch their postseason ticket increases by the week.

As each race becomes more pivotal, we're breaking down this week's NASCAR odds and the best Crayon 301 betting picks.

Odds to win 2023 Crayon 301

Odds as of July 11, 2023.

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Crayon 301 field

Christopher Bell stung a win at New Hampshire last season after a runner-up finish in 2021, which is enough to earn him favorite status despite not having scored a Top-5 result since April.

But his +550 odds lead is slim ahead of six drivers priced +900 or lower, including three-time Loudon champs Denny Hamlin (+700) and Kyle Busch (+900), and four-time winner Kevin Harvick (+900).

Of course, NASCAR Cup Series odds leader Kyle Larson (+900) finds himself near the top despite middling results at New Hampshire. Larson recorded Top-8 finishes in four straight races (three of which in the Top 5) before spinning out last weekend at Atlanta, so he'll be hungry to get back on track.

Overall, the Loudon odds board is fairly linear in distribution, even through the relatively flat top tier of contenders. No huge clusters of drivers or massive drop-offs in prices exist throughout the field — a relative anomaly in this season's NASCAR odds.

Crayon 301 picks and predictions

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Crayon 301 favorites

Joe Gibbs Racing

This could be their week again to shine again. They’ve finished runner-up in four of the last five Loudon tries and six times in the last nine New Hampshire races overall. The only three that they didn’t finish second in? They won, including just last year. I like a pair of drivers from this camp: 

Denny Hamlin (+700) has 11 straight Top-15 finishes on this track, including a runner-up in two of the last four years and winning in 2017. He was fourth (Martinsville) and second (Gateway) in comparable tracks, as well as fifth in Dover this May. 

Martin Truex Jr. (+650) had five Top-10 finishes in his first seven New Hampshire starts. Then, he had two over his next 13 tries there. But, over the last 10, he’s had eight results in the Top-10 again, including six of the last seven in the top seven at that. He started on the pole, swept both stages, and led a race-high 172 laps last year. He was third in Martinsville and fifth at Gateway to go along with a win at Dover this year, too. 

The thing is, they're both also reeling entering. Truex, after scoring four straight Top-5 finishes, has come home 32nd and 29th the last two weeks. Hamlin has finished 11th or worse in five of his last seven starts on the season, including being 11th and 14th the last two races. 

Can they just turn it around suddenly?

Kyle Busch (+900)

Kyle Busch is always good on this track and taking over in a car that Tyler Reddick was 10th, 13th, and 21st in his three Cup Loudon starts. Busch dominated Gateway last month, too. 

Kyle Larson (+1,000) 

He does have four Top-10s in his last seven tries, including two runner-ups, but also on like tracks in 2023 he was fourth, first, first, and fourth, respectively. He also has four Top-8 finishes in the last five weeks. 

Crayon 301 sleepers

Stewart Haas-Racing

This is usually their get-right race. Kevin Harvick (+900) got right here in 2019 after entering it winless on the year. He was fifth at both Phoenix and Richmond this year. He’s won three of the last eight Loudon races, and has Top-6 finishes (including two wins) in each of the last five here, while leading the most laps in his sixth-place effort in 2021. 

Aric Almirola (+2,200) won here in 2021 for his sixth Top 11 on this track since 2013. He was third in 2018, 11th in 2019, seventh in 2020. He may have been only 31st last year, but he did qualify seventh and finished sixth this spring in Martinsville. 

Chase Briscoe (+7,000) was 15th last year, but seventh this year at Phoenix and fifth in Martinsville while Ryan Preece (+5,500) is always a threat at his home track and has had his best races on short tracks this season. 

Bubba Wallace (+2,800)

Third a year ago and in the preferred power (Toyota) this weekend again. He had a car capable of a Top-5 finish in Gateway too. Wallace's last five finishes are 30th, 17th, 15th, 31st, and 25th though. 

Crayon 301 fades

Christopher Bell (+500)

This is a fade for me — I don’t like this number at all. While he was runner-up in 2021 and won last year, this year on like tracks, he was sixth (Phoenix), fourth (Richmond), 16th (Martinsville), and 11th (Gateway). He hasn’t had a Top-5 finish since Easter in Bristol (12 races), and is 18th and 23rd in the last two weeks entering. 

Hendrick Motorsports (non-Larson)

Their last win at Loudon came back in 2012. In 2021, they finished 7-9-18-21. Last year was 2-11-14-35. However, they've been so good on like tracks this year. 

In Phoenix, they went 1-4-9-10. In Richmond it was 1-2-8-24. At Martinsville, 1-10-11-23. Gateway they struggled at 4-8-21-26. 

So, which wins out? I like Larson above but these three....not so much. 

Chase Elliott (+1,100) has just two Top 5s in nine starts there, but one was a runner-up last season. He has three Top-5 finishes in the last four weeks. However, he missed Phoenix, Richmond, and Gateway this year and in those races, the 9 car struggled. It took some strategy to get them towards the front. 

William Byron (+1,200) has no Top 10s in five tries but won Phoenix, had a car to win Richmond, was 23rd in Martinsville, and eighth in Gateway. He has eight Top-8 finishes in the last 10 races, including a win last Sunday. However, does he win two straight though? Maybe a safer play for a Top-10 prop instead. 

Alex Bowman (+4,500) has just one Top 10 (ninth in 2021) in the same five starts as Byron. On like tracks this season, he was ninth, eighth, 11th, and 26th respectively. He had six Top-10 finishes in the first seven races of the season. In the last nine? None. 

Crayon 301 prop pick

Christopher Bell (-135) vs. Martin Truex Jr. (+105)

Yes, Bell has a Top-2 finish in each of his last two Loudon tries. However, Truex has been equally as good and, in fact, better on the season. Truex has four Top-5 finishes in the last six weeks while Bell hasn’t had a Top-5 result since Bristol Dirt on Easter night. 

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NHMS track analysis

The ultimate test between momentum and past stats. Trends say one thing, recent results say another. Which do you trust?

The track didn’t change between last year and this, and while the package did slightly, I still expect this to possibly be a Joe Gibbs Racing race to lose. Chevrolet has just one win in the last 16 New Hampshire tries with the last victory coming back in 2016. So, while Hendrick Motorsports may have fared well on like tracks this season, the safer play may be riding the Toyotas because they’ve been right there with HMS on those same tracks, and have been so dominant here. 

Hendrick Motorsports hasn’t won here since 2012. JGR just won here last year. 

Also, Loudon is a track that typically rewards the best. 12 of the last 15 New Hampshire winners were Cup champions in the sport. Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Aric Almiorla are the lone exceptions, but outside of Almirola, the other two also made the Championship 4 in the season of their wins here.

All four drivers who made the Championship 4 from 2018, 2019, and 2020 finished in the Top 10 in Loudon. In 2021, it was two of four, partially because Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. were collected in that opening lap crash in the rain. Last year, it was three of the four; all in the Top 8 (1st - Bell, 2nd - Elliott, 6th - Chastain, 24th - Logano). 

In 2020, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Chase Elliott combined to lead 285 of the 301 laps. They finished 1-2-4-9.

In 2019, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., and Kyle Busch combined to lead 272 of the 301 laps. They finished 1-2-6-8.

In 2018, Harvick, Busch, Truex Jr., and Joey Logano combined to lead 131 of 301 laps. They finished 1-2-4-9.

• Starting position hasn’t mattered as much at New Hampshire like it has elsewhere. Six of the last 10 New Hampshire winners have come from a starting spot outside of the Top 12.
• Three of the last five winners have been 14th or worse at the start.
• There have been 0 overtime finishes in the last 11 Loudon races.
• 10 of the last 12 races saw the driver that led the most laps fail to win in the end.
• Six of the last 10 drivers to lead the most laps failed to even score a Top 5.