NASCAR odds, Bristol: Round of 12 awaits; Kyle Larson favored again

A year ago at Bristol, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick were eliminated from the championship chase while non-playoff racer Chris Buescher got the win.

All of that could happen again Saturday, but we’re here for better news than that — no offense, Mr. Buescher.

Meanwhile, two drivers have been on quite a run over the past two weeks, and only one of them is feeling some serious love from those who are phoning in wagers — if you’re not allowed to have the app in your state, trust me, you know someone who can get it done.

It’s been a while, so let’s get to the reminder on this weekly exercise: There’s a $100 allotment, with half for picking the upcoming race winner, the other half on a prop bet.

Let’s get to it …

The Favorites: What’s Tyler Reddick gotta do?

Kyle Larson +550; William Byron +750; Denny Hamlin +750; Christopher Bell +800; Brad Keselowski +850

Denny Hamlin should probably be atop the list, but good grief, where’s Tyler Reddick? He’s finished second and first the past two weeks. 

Next up: The Chasers, including Chase

Chase Elliott +1000; Kyle Busch +1,200; Chris Buescher +1,200; Ross The Boss Chastain +1,400; Martin Truex +1,400; Kevin Harvick +1,400; Joey Logano +1,400

Seriously, where’s Reddick?

Two worth a look

Tyler Reddick +1,600; Ryan Blaney +1,600

There he is! The fact Reddick and Blaney are sharing midweek odds tells me a lot about the betting public and their penchant for wagering with the heart and not the head.

Mid-pack faves, including Bubba Wallace

Bubba Wallace +2,800; Ty Gibbs +3,500; Alex Bowman +5,500; Erik Jones +6,000; Daniel Suarez +9,000; Ricky Stenhouse +10,000; Michael McDowell +10,000

Over the past four races on Bristol’s concrete, Erik Jones has the fourth best average finish, with a pair of top-5s. Last week, he finished third — his best of 2023. If we can bum an extra sawbuck off a friendly stranger, it’s worth a flier, because at +6,000 it’d pay $600. 

Prop ’em Up

● Let’s lead with the badges this week: Chevy is +120, Toyota +210, Ford +230.

● Chase Elliott is +275 for a top-3 and +130 for a top-5

● Kevin Harvick is +350 for a top-3 and +160 for top-5.

● Erik Jones is +1,600 for a top-3 and +750 for a top-5.

● Denny Hamlin (-105) vs. Kyle Larson (-125) is my favorite driver-vs-driver prop, because I think Denny wins this one hands down.

Last Week

I had Chris Buescher to win at Kansas and he laid an egg for the first tine in a month of Sundays. Went all-in on Buescher and his mates by betting my $50 prop on Ford to win. 

Tyler Reddick’s win for Toyota put that to rest.

This Week

It’s time. 

Finally, it’s time. 

Brad Keselowski to win. Over the past five races on Bristol’s concrete, Kez has led 407 laps, with a win and two other top-6 finishes. No one is hungrier, and hunger equals horsepower. At +850, a $50 wager would pay off $425.

The other $50, for the prop, has to go with Denny on the Hamlin-Larson matchup. That'd bring $97.61. While both are locked into the Round of 12, Denny has had two wins ripped from him the past two weeks, and that has to mean something, right? 97.61