NASCAR Picks: NASCAR Cup Series FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan Best Bets, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook

NASCAR takes off the short-track package and switches into its normal work clothes this week. Michigan is an intermediate track. It’s a fairly straight forward cookie-cutter track. Although it is two miles in length, it’s just like any other 1.5-mile intermediate track. As always, trust the data but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan.

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Kevin Harvick is the defending champ at Michigan. The same Kevin Harvick that only runs well in the short-track package. If there was one intermediate track where Stewart-Haas Racing was going to find speed, it was going to be Michigan. It’s a one-off race. They have history at the track. Finally, 2022 was the first season in the Next Gen car. Crew chiefs were guessing setups every week. There were a plethora of different winners. Harvick’s win isn’t shocking through that lens.

Race Winner — FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan

Kyle Larson +700

There were two key moments that stood out in the last race in this racing package. Hamlin wrecked Kyle Larson and stole the win. That can be debated and argued, but that discussion is worthless. The moment that matters is that Kyle Larson spun out and brought out a caution early in the race. He was still able to race his way back to the lead. Larson had a fast car at Pocono. He’ll have a fast car at Michigan.

The mechanical advantage is understood. The skills gap is understood. Larson is better than most at Michigan. Between 2016 and 2017, Larson won three races in a row at this two-mile track (he also has two wins and two runner-up finishes at the two-mile intermediate track in Fontana). In his last three races at Michigan, he has two third-place finishes. The track history checks out. The current form checks out.

Kevin Harvick +900

Here’a a fun fact: Harvick has won six of the last eight Michigan races. That’s fun for him and not anyone else. Despite SHR’s struggles in the intermediate-track package over the last three seasons, Michigan has been just fine. If we stretch that race span to the last nine, Harvick’s stats include a runner-up finish in the 2018 spring race. Harvick finished second to his teammate Clint Bowyer in a rain-shortened race. Michigan is not a particularly unique track. History shouldn’t matter that much, but apparently it does. Betting against Harvick at Michigan has been a bad idea. The good news for the faders is that this will be his last race at Michigan. Since this is the finale, it seems like a great time to chase.

NASCAR matchup bets and prop bets as they become available on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Race Winner — FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan

Christopher Bell +1000

The JGR Toyotas are fast. Denny Hamlin (+650) and Martin Truex Jr. (+800) are chalky. Ty Gibbs is too much of a reach. Bell is Goldy Locks. He nearly won this race last season. After spending most of the race inside the top 3, Bell wrecked on lap 169 of 200 while battling for second. He wasn’t quite clear of Ross Chastain (+1800), and Chastain did not lift. Instead Chastain chose to wreck them both ala the The Scorpion and The Frog. Why give up a possible win and a certain top-3 finish? Chastain is a scorpion. It’s in his nature. He doesn’t lift.

Weeks ago, Bell earned a top-10 finish at Pocono and Nashville, so it appears he has a car that is fast enough to win. He proved last season that he has the skill to seal the deal at Michigan. The last piece is the smarts. He has plenty of intermediate-track wins in the Xfinity Series, but so does everyone else. He has not won an intermediate-track race in the Cup Series. This could be the week he breaks through.

Martin Truex Jr. +800

The lap-by-lap data doesn’t lie. From this data the Dietrich Data Score is created. Drivers are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 1.00. Truex has been elite everywhere. For this conversation, only the intermediate-track package results matter. Truex was nearly perfect with the score of 0.97 at Pocono and in the race before that in Nashville. During the stretch of four intermediate-track races in May, Truex scored a 0.89 at Dover (race winner), 0.97 at Kansas, 0.91 at Darlington and 0.92 at Charlotte. No one has better current form statistics.

Although he’s never won at Michigan, Truex has solid numbers at Michigan. He’s earned a top-10 finish in each of the last six Michigan races, and four top-5 finishes over that span.

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