NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Odds & Picks

Denny Hamlin tops the board, but the tight Hollywood Casino 400 odds suggest this is anybody's race. We break down this weekend's NASCAR playoff field and deliver your best betting picks.

The NASCAR playoffs are in full swing, with Kyle Larson booking the first postseason win. 

Now, the NASCAR Cup Series odds shift their focus to Kansas for the Hollywood Casino 400, as the playoff field looks to dodge the first cut and make the Round of 12. 

As the action heats up, we've got your one-stop-shop for edges, breaking down the field with our Hollywood Casino 400 odds, and serving up the best NASCAR betting picks.

Odds to win 2023 Hollywood Casino 400

Odds as of September 5, 2023.

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Hollywood Casino 400 field

Denny Hamlin sits atop another crowded top tier of contenders, with the viable field shortening at most sportsbooks now that we're into the playoffs. 

While the pricing curve for the Hollywood Casino 400 odds isn't as flat as last week's stop at Darlington, the same general trend follows: Tons of drivers priced as favorites (+900 and under) and slight underdogs (+2,000 and under), then a huge dropoff odds outside of the Top 16 (plus outlier Chase Elliott). 

Hamlin, for his part, has crushed in Kansas, winning four times, including this season's spring race. He was fourth and second last year as well, so there's little reason to think he won't continue to excel here in the Gen-7 car. 

He holds a slim odds lead over Martin Truex Jr., a two-time Kansas winner, and Kyle Larson, who won here in 2021, as he did everywhere else. 

While Larson won last week's Cook Out Southern 500, both Hamlin and Truex will be looking to rebound from middling finishes on a comfortable track. 

Hollywood Casino 400 picks and predictions

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Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, September 5, 2023.

Hollywood Casino 400 pre-qualifying favorites

Denny Hamlin (+450)

The only driver to have won multiple times here in the last 12 races and was fourth and second here last year to go along with his win this spring. The last driver to sweep Kansas in a single season was Martin Truex Jr. in 2017. Hamlin did win two straight between 2019 (playoff race) and 2020 (spring). He led 177 laps last week and swept both stages. 

Martin Truex Jr. (+550)

Since 2017, he’s had a Top-10 finish in all but one Kansas start, including sweeping both race wins in 2017. He finished sixth and fifth last year, eighth this past spring, and was seventh this past March in Vegas. He's had a Top-8 finish in four of the six intermediate races this season. 

Kyle Larson (+550)

He dominated in leading the most laps but not winning the 2021 spring race. He would go on to win the playoff race that year. He was runner-up and eighth, respectively, last year, and runner-up (85 laps led) again this spring for his ninth Top 8 — five of which being in the Top 4 — in as many Kansas tries. Larson led 63 laps and finished runner-up this spring in Vegas, too. He's finished in the Top-4 in four of the six races on intermediate tracks this season. 

William Byron (+750)

He has seven Top-10 finishes in his last eight starts at Kansas, including being ninth and sixth, respectively, last year and third this past spring. Byron also led 176 laps in a Vegas win this spring too. On intermediate tracks this season, he's finished first, third, first, second, eighth and fourth, respectively.

Hollywood Casino 400 sleepers

23XI Racing

The 45 car swept both races last year via Kurt Busch in the spring and Bubba Wallace (+1200) in the fall. Busch led 116 of 267 laps in last year’s May race while Wallace led 58 laps in his fall win. Wallace was also fourth this past spring in Vegas, fourth here, fifth and seventh in Darlington, and fourth in Charlotte this season too.

Tyler Reddick (+900) with RCR last year was seventh and 35th but that 35th was a crash after leading 38 laps. He was ninth here this spring and enters having finished runner-up on Sunday night in Darlington. He’s got three Top-8 finishes in the last five weeks. 

Hollywood Casino 400 fades

Christopher Bell (+900)

He scored his first Xfinity race win at this very track a few years ago, as well as being 10th, eighth, and third in the last three Kansas playoff races and fifth in the spring race last year. Bell was also fifth in Vegas too. My only pause was him being 36th, 14th, 24th, 11th, and 23rd on the other intermediate tracks this season. 

Kyle Busch (+1,400)

He won in May of 2021 and has six Top-5 finishes in his last 10 Kansas starts. However, 35th this spring gives me pause. So does 14th in Vegas. He was seventh and 11th in Darlington, sixth in Charlotte, and did win Gateway. But he has just one Top-5 finish in the last eight races. 

Ross Chastain (+1,600)

Seventh in both races last year and fifth this spring could land him on the sleepers list. However, his team’s struggled on these tracks in 2023 with his other finishes on like courses being 12th, 29th, 22nd, 22nd, and fifth. 

Hollywood Casino 400 prop pick

Kevin Harvick Group C Winner @ DraftKings

These are great odds for a group meaning all Harvick (+300) has to do is beat Ross Chastain (+230), Chris Buescher (+230), and Ryan Blaney (+300) across the finish line on Sunday. 

Harvick has eight Top-2 finishes at Kansas since 2013. He had a shot at winning each of the last two races on the season too, but bad luck transpired in the end of each. He was ninth this spring and has five Top-11 finishes in six intermediate track races this season.

Blaney has finished 16th or worse in six of his last nine at Kansas. He hasn’t had a Top-5 finish in any of the last 13 races with his best finish since June being ninth. Chastain has struggled on these types of tracks in 2023 (12th, 29th, 22nd, 22nd, fifth). While he has been solid at Kansas, he hasn’t been better than Harvick. 

Then there’s Buescher, who arguably scares me the most out of the three to beat Harvick. However, his last three Kansas finishes are 27th, 15th, 17th. 

Pick: Harvick to win Group C (+300 at DraftKings)

Kansas Speedway track analysis

A recent paving makes this a very difficult track to pass on. Outside lane is better, but there is a chance to take the lead from the inside. Mostly a restart/track position track; you can gamble on two tires or, depending on how late you are in the race, 0 tires. Clean air is key here. 

Toyota has won six of the last eight Kansas races (three straight) including eight of the last 13. They also swept last year. 

The manufacturer, overall, went 1-3-4-5-6 in the spring race a year ago (171 of 267 laps led) and 1-2-3-5 in the fall (94 of 267 laps led). They combined to lead 265 of 534 laps (49.6%) a year ago. This spring, they went 1-4-8-9 and combined to lead 148 of 267 (55.4%).

Since 2011, every Kansas winner has won a series championship, with the exception of Hamlin and Bubba Wallace. In fact, only Hamlin, Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, Joe Nemechek, and Wallace have ever won at Kansas and not also won a Cup title. Kyle Larson joined that list, but only for a few months in the Fall of 2021 before he became a champion.

I’d also still side with a playoff driver to win too. Four non-playoff drivers have won a NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway:

• In 2004, Joe Nemechek won the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas, and was ranked 21st in the points at the time of the win.
• In 2006, NASCAR Hall of Famer Tony Stewart won the Kansas playoff race and was 11th in points.
• In 2007, Greg Biffle won and was 14th in points.  
• In 2022, Bubba Wallace won and was 19th in points. 

The worst playoff Kansas finish by a driver that went on to win the championship later that same season was 17th last year by Joey Logano. The previous worst was 15th by NASCAR Hall-of-Famer Tony Stewart in 2011.

• Each of the last seven Kansas winners has started in the Top 10. 13 of the last 15 Kansas winners started in the Top 6 rows.
• There’s been no OT finishes in each of the last seven races, and 13 of the last 15 in general.
• The eventual race winner scored stage points in every first stage under the stage era in Kansas, with the exception of last year’s spring race. Denny Hamlin won Stage 1 this spring. 
• The eventual race winner finished in the Top 5 in six of the last eight second stages and nine of the 13 overall second stages. Hamlin was 10th this spring. 
• The odd thing is, the eventual race winner at Kansas has actually won a second stage just twice (2019 playoff race, May 2022).