Nationals-Mets prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, July 27

The Washington Nationals (43-59) and the New York Mets (47-54) begin a four-game divisional series on Thursday, July 27. First pitch from Citi Field in Queens, New York is set for 7:10 p.m. ET and it will air on ESPN+. Washington will start Josiah Gray (7-8, 3.45 ERA), while New York counters with Kodai Senga (7-5, 3.27 ERA).

The Mets are the -200 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nationals are the +170 underdogs, and the run total is set at nine.

Nationals-Mets picks: Thursday, July 27th

Injury report

Nationals

Out: RP Carl Edwards Jr. (shoulder), RP Hunter Harvey (forearm)

Mets

Out: RF Starling Marte (migraines), 2B Luis Guillorme (calf)

Starting pitchers

Josiah Gray vs. Kodai Senga

Gray will take the mound for the 21st time this season. Recently he has alternated good starts with bad. Gray was on point his last time out, though, as he pitched seven innings against the San Francisco Giants. He allowed one earned run on four hits while walking three and striking out four to pick up his seventh victory.

The rookie Senga will make his 19th career start on Thursday. He has settled down on the mound but is coming off a start that ended early. Senga lasted only 3.1 innings against the Boston Red Sox. He allowed two earned runs on three hits while walking one and striking out three. Senga didn’t factor into the decision.

Over/Under pick

The Nationals have scored at least five runs in six consecutive games. The Mets have lost all consistency at the plate scoring one, nine, one, six and five runs over their last five games. Still, with how well Washington has been hitting, I’m leaning the over.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

Washington has won two in a row and five of its last six games. New York is coming into this game after a loss to the Yankees and has dropped three of its last four. Senga gives the Mets the edge on the mound, but you have to give credit to how well the Nationals have been hitting. If Gray can avoid a meltdown on the mound, the Nationals should pick up a win.