NBA Best Bets, Jan. 31: Milwaukee Bucks vs Portland Trail Blazers

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the best bet for the NBA’s Tuesday night slate, including the second meeting between the Bucks and Blazers.

Bucks (-10.5) at Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5

In Doc Rivers’ first game as a head coach, the Bucks lost to the Nuggets in Denver (113-107), but looked good out the gate (26-25 1Q lead) and better on the defensive end.

Rivers’ second matchup will be much easier as the Bucks take on the Blazers in Portland. This is Damian Lillard’s return, so emotions will run high for the Bucks’ star and this game should get off to an exciting start.

Portland played at Milwaukee earlier this season and the Bucks won 108-102 after trailing in the first quarter (31-26), at the half (68-52), and by 26 points at one time.

Milwaukee certainly remembers that and will make it a priority to get off to a quick start here. This is the second game of a five-game road trip to start for Rivers and company, so I like Milwaukee in the first quarter to come out focused.

Throughout January, Portland permitted 31.2 PPG in the 1Q (28th), ranked last in opponent field goal percentage (51.9%), and owned the second-worst defensive net rating (123.3).

Philadelphia, Chicago, and San Antonio scored fewer than 30 points in the first quarter versus Portland over the last three games, but I like Milwaukee to break that streak. In the last four games following a win, Portland gave up 36, 31, 31, and 38 points in the 1Q.

I played Milwaukee’s 1Q Team Total Over 31.5 at -115 odds on FanDuel. I’d go 1Q Over 32.5 for 1 unit or pivot to the Bucks 1H Team Total Over 62.5 for 1 unit if you miss the 31.5.

Pick: Bucks 1Q Team Total Over 31.5 (2u)

Season Record: 16-12 (57.1%) +3.12u

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