Bucks vs. Timberwolves odds, props, predictions: Minnesota seeks message-sending sweep of Milwaukee

The Minnesota Timberwolves still have their share of doubters, in part because they don’t often get to take the national stage. The top team in the Western Conference will have that opportunity Friday against a Bucks team it routed in Milwaukee on Feb. 8, 129-105.

That puts the revenge factor squarely in the visitors’ corner as they take the court looking to come out of the All-Star break the right way after struggling mightily in going 2-5 over the past seven games. It’s been so bad that the 24-point loss suffered at the hands of the T-Wolves wasn’t even the Bucks’ most lopsided loss during the stretch.

Conversely, the Timberwolves (39-16 SU, 29-25-1 ATS) are on a four-game win streak that started in Milwaukee. They’ve all come by double-digits, and their average margin of victory has been 23.5 points. All their victories have come on the road, and although injury-riddled Portland was victimized twice, so were the Clippers.

Meanwhile, the Bucks (35-21, 21-35) hit rock bottom before going on hiatus, losing in Memphis 113-110 to a team missing Jaren Jackson, Jr. in addition to everyone else that’s been out for months. Milwaukee was a 14-point favorite and got 35 points and 12 assists from Giannis Antetokounmpo but still couldn’t overcome a team led by second-year wings Vince Williams, Jr. and 19-year-old GG Jackson, both second-round picks. Damian Lillard shot 3-for-13 from 3-point range, part of the Bucks’ woeful 11-for-44 showing from beyond the arc.

Handicapping Bucks vs. Timberwolves betting odds, props, and predictions entails projecting whether a week off will help cure what’s ailing Milwaukee, or if facing an elite defensive team in their arena will just extend the misery.

Bucks vs. Timberwolves odds: Point spread, moneyline, total

Here are the latest NBA betting odds for Milwaukee vs. Minnesota:

Bucks betting news: Time for Dame time to start ticking

Lillard is coming off a brilliant All-Star weekend, winning the 3-point contest and Sunday’s MVP after making 11 3-pointers. Antetokounmpo then went out of his way to say the Bucks are Lillard’s team, a message meant to inspire his new teammate to be more like his Portland self. Clearly, this team still has an identity crisis.

Even though Adrian Griffin paid for Milwaukee’s underachieving ways and Doc Rivers got the call, the bigger problem outside of porous defense has been a lack of synergy between Antetokounmpo and Lillard. The hope now is that his performance in Indianapolis will help him rediscover his mojo. 

Outside of his injury-riddled 2021-22 season, Lillard is averaging his fewest points per game since 2014-15, and shooting 3-pointers at a 34 percent clip, the lowest of any season where he’s played at least 50 games. His assists are also down. The Bucks are counting on him getting it together down the stretch, specifically because Antetokounmpo is as effective as ever. 

Rivers is 3-7 as Milwaukee’s head coach and should also have some ideas on how to get things headed in the right direction after a few days of practices this week. He and the staff coached the Eastern Conference All-Stars, too, allowing him some time to work with Lillard and Antetokounmpo. 

Although Khris Middleton hasn’t played since spraining his ankle on Feb. 6, he’s closing in on a return. The Bucks are expected to have new signee Danilo Gallinari, who will be part of the second unit.

Timberwolves betting news: Defense needs to remain a staple

Karl-Anthony Towns had his own All-Star success, scoring 50 points while shooting 23-for-35 from the field. Anthony Edwards had a quieter Sunday, scoring just four points off the bench, but he’s had a special run all season, dominating at both ends.  

Towns and Edwards rank third and fifth in defensive win shares while serving as Minnesota’s top scorers, while Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Rudy Gobert ranks first. He spent All-Star weekend vacationing after being snubbed. 

The Timberwolves have allowed 109 or fewer points in 14 of 18 games and make life difficult for everyone with their size. They rank third in the NBA in rebound rate, first in defensive efficiency and employ the fifth-slowest pace, which tends to bleed games dry. 

If Chris Finch can continue getting the most out of his group and complacency doesn’t set in, Minnesota has a very real shot at finishing as the West’s No. 1 seed. As the final-third of the season begins, they’re also pretty healthy, setting them up for success out of the gate. 

The T-Wolves’ next win will be their 40th of the season, making them the only team other than Boston to join that club. This Bucks game marks the beginning of a season-long seven-game homestand that features games against the Kings and Clippers in addition to struggling teams like the Nets, Spurs, Grizzlies and Trail Blazers.

Odds are pretty good they’ll own the top record in the Western Conference well into March.

Bucks vs. Timberwolves player props picks

Antetokounmpo’s points total is set at 27.5 at BetMGM, and although that’s quite attainable, he may stick to his pledge to try and get Lillard going. Gobert’s size is also a deterrent in the paint. That’s why the preference here is to ride the OVER on Lillard’s number, which is 24.5, only slightly higher than his season average. Although on the juicy side at -155, Lillard hitting more than 2.5 3-pointers in this game also correlates.

Towns didn’t light it up from beyond the arc in Indy, but backing him to hit more than 3-pointers at plus money (+125) is also a wager we’d make. Riding the UNDER on Gobert grabbing 12.5 rebounds is also a play since he grabbed 11 in the first meeting and could always land in foul trouble. 

Bucks vs. Timberwolves prediction ATS

The Bucks are going to start looking like a title contender again at some point, but this is an awfully tough assignment coming out of the break. They’re on the road, breaking in a new piece in Gallinari and still missing Middleton against a great defense.

Minnesota has a healthy Mike Conley in play with fresh legs and will have an exuberant crowd looking forward to catapulting the team to a great first leg of the homestand. Edwards is likely to have a big night after his quiet All-Star game, and while Rivers is still figuring things out with his group, Finch is going to challenge his to take advantage of a great situation. This won’t be as lopsided as the matchup in Milwaukee since Lillard will be in the mix, but we’re expecting Minnesota to extend its win streak and cover.