Heat or Nuggets? Denver v Miami NBA Finals Game 1 betting tips, odds, picks, predictions and preview

After a playoffs more entertaining than playing a quick game of ‘Hang on, Michael Jordan isn’t ACTUALLY Jimmy Butler’s dad... right?’ the NBA Finals tip off on Friday morning with the Western Conference champion 1-seed Denver Nuggets hosting the East winners, the 8-seed Miami Heat.

It’s the first time the Nuggets have made the Finals in its history, while for Miami it’s the seventh visit in franchise history and sixth for coach Erik Spoelstra.

This is the Finals though, so it’s the Joker vs Jimmy show.

One on side a Serbian behemoth in two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic.

On the other, a player who even Michael Jordan would acknowledge has a bit of a competitive spirit: Playoff Jimmy, aka HIMMY Butler (s/o NBA Straya), aka Jimmy Butler.

Who takes out Game 1 of the NBA Finals?

Ball Arena, Denver, Friday 10.35am

Line odds:

Total Points Over/Under: 219.5

WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT

• Denver have won 9 of the last 10 against Miami.
• The Nuggets have covered the line in the last six straight against the Heat.
• Denver has won 10 straight home games.
• The last six straight between the two teams has hit the total points over.

Miami, of course, came from the brink of elimination in the play-in tournament after losing the 7-seed game to Atlanta and were down three points to the Bulls with three minutes left in their 8-seed game… and then stomped the East No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks in five, handle the Knicks in 6 and then beat the 2-seeded Boston Celtics in a road Game 7.

The Heat are the only second 8-seed in NBA history to make the NBA Finals, following the ‘99 Knicks.

Unfortunately, they now face a rampant, rested Denver squad.

Denver has lost only three games all post-season and are short-priced favourites ($1.25) to win the series over Miami ($4) as a result, have a -1.5 game Finals handicap and a 4-1 Denver Finals win is the shortest price on offer for the series final score.

THE MATCH-UP

After completing a sweep of LeBron James and his LA Lakers over a week and half ago, heading into Game 1 Denver only has the eternal question of rest vs. rust hanging over its head.

But with two-time MVP Nikola Jokic at the helm, it’s hard to expect the Nuggets to approach this game with anything other than a crush-kill-destroy mindset.

Denver’s offence has been incredible during the playoffs, putting up 119.7 points per 100 possessions, while Miami is tracking 116.1 per-100 and the last five games between the Heat and Nuggets has hit the total points over mark.

The Joker in particular is a huge matchup problem for the relatively small Heat: in the last two seasons Jokic is shooting 17-27 (63%) while defended by Heat big man Bam Adebayo, and 68% total against the Heat and Denver are 4-0 in those matchups.

At home for Game 1, look for Jokic to make a big statement from the outset. He’s gone for 50+ points, rebounds and assists in four straight home games, five of his last six at Ball Arena and seven of his last nine total.

His running mate Jamal Murray averaged a ridiculous 32.5 points a game in the Western Conference Finals and is averaging 28.8 points a game in home games for the entire Nuggets playoff run.

On the other side of the ball, Playoff Jimmy – aka Heat superstar Jimmy Butler – is fresh off destroying the Boston Celtics hopes at being the first team to come from 0-3 down, and is currently shooting 50% from the field and averaging 27.8 points a game on the road in the playoffs.

The biggest surprise of the Heat playoff run, though, has been the emergence of undrafted wing Caleb Martin, who averaged 19.3 points and 6.4 rebounds a game against the Celtics in the ECF.

WHO WINS?

Denver has won 10 straight home games in the altitude of Colorado: after a gruelling, emotional seven-game series in the ECF, it’s hard to see this offence-challenged Heat team (ranked last in the NBA in points per game during the season) backing up its excellent Game 7 performance on the road and outscoring the whirring death machine offence (s/o NBA Straya) of Denver.

Denver has also covered the line in six straight against the Heat and is 30-18-1 against the line at home this season: look for the Nuggets to make a big statement in Game 1 and get the Finals off to a winning start.

-- JAYMZ CLEMENTS’ NBA FINALS SAME GAME MULTI --

MIAMI HEAT @ DENVER NUGGETS - GAME 1

• Nikola Jokic - 24.5-plus points

Two-time MVP Jokic is putting up 29.9 points an outing so far in the 2023 playoffs.

• Jimmy Butler - 27.5-plus points

Playoff Jimmy is averaging over 28 points on the road these playoffs.

• Jamal Murray - 22.5-plus points

Jamal will have a tougher time against Miami’s defenders but averaged 32.5 points in the WCF.

• Nikola Jokic - 12.5-plus rebounds

Joker has gone for 12-plus boards in four straight against Miami and in six straight at home.

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 2-plus threes

The Notorious KCP has hit 2-plus threes in five straight games.