NBA Finals Game 3 Preview: Heat vs. Nuggets Predictions, Player Props

We’ve got a trio of player prop predictions for our NBA Finals Game 3 preview, with plays on two crucial Heat players and an important Denver role player.

Will Michael Porter Jr. bounce back after a horrific Game 2 performance? Can Jimmy Butler get back to his scoring ways? And what’s up with the Kevin Love adjustment?

Odds via Caesars.

Heat vs. Nuggets prop: Michael Porter Jr. Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-129)

So the shots haven’t fallen for Porter. No biggie, a player like him should bounce back easily.

Porter is one of the NBA’s best spot-up shooters. Per ShotQuality, he ranks in the 94th percentile of NBA players in catch-and-shoot 3-point points per possession and the 100th percentile in spacing and gravity. Porter shot 41.7% from 3 this season.

Unfortunately, it’s been a rough start to the NBA Finals for Porter. He’s shot a combined 3-for-17 from deep during the first two games, including 1-for-7 on open or wide-open 3s in Game 1.

Porter is too good of a shooter for these quality attempts not to fall. I expect serious positive shooting regression over the next few games.

However, I also expect a monster increase in defensive intensity after a dreadful defensive performance in Game 2.

In fact, we should expect more from Porter in general – Denver needs him to step up in the scoring, playmaking and defensive department.

That’s why I’m backing Porter in the PRA market, where his numbers are slightly depressed after the past two games, and he’s due for a breakout performance.

Porter was crushing this prop line before the finals started, having cashed over 22.5 PRA in seven-of-eight games entering the Finals.

I expect Porter to return to his old ways in Game 3.

Heat vs. Nuggets prop: Kevin Love Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-123)

Erik Spoelstra is the best in-game adjuster among current NBA coaches. His minor tweaks during this playoff run have driven Miami’s NBA Finals appearance.

The big adjustment Spoelstra made in Game 2 was playing Kevin Love. Love’s bigger body helps counteract Denver’s monster size advantage, and the veteran big man has been uber-active on the boards and as a spot-up shooter.

Love played 22 minutes in Game 2, the most he’s played since Game 4 against the Knicks. As a result, he crushed this PRA line, finishing with 17 in total.

Love has played at least 20 minutes eight times during this playoff run, eclipsing 15 PRA in all eight games.

So, expect a ton of Love in Game 3, and bet on him stuffing the stat sheet.

Heat vs. Nuggets prop: Jimmy Butler Under 25.5 points (-127)

Butler has been turned into more of a facilitator than a scorer during this series, with the Nuggets giving him loads of attention.

So, I’m already pretty low on Jimmy’s points prop entering Game 3. He managed only 13 points in Game 1 and 21 in Game 2.

But I also think Jimmy’s ankle is starting to really bother him. He’s managed 25 or more points in only four of his past 11 games, taking fewer than 20 shots in seven.

It feels like Butler is attacking less and dishing more, looking for the Heat role players to step up as shooters (to be fair, they’ve done just that).

So, with that in mind, I’ll fade Butler in the points market in Game 3. If these trends continue, I might fade him again in Game 4.

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