NBA Finals odds, expert picks for Heat vs. Nuggets Game 3

We have ourselves a series. As they have all postseason, the Heat responded from a Game 1 loss — and double-digit first-half deficit that coincided with a 40-14 Denver run — to steal Game 2 at Ball Arena 111-108, handing the Nuggets their first home loss of the postseason.

The series now shifts to Miami for Game 3, and it’s the Eastern Conference’s eighth seed that has home court advantage.

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Heat vs. Nuggets

8:30 p.m. ET Sunday on ABC

What are the odds for the Heat vs. Nuggets?

Series: Tied 1-1

Series odds: Nuggets -275, Heat +220

Another night, another (exaggerated finger quotes) outlier shooting night for Miami in Game 2. And if it feels like you’ve been hearing that phrase a lot lately, you’re not wrong.

By finishing 17-for-35 (48.6 percent) from beyond the arc on Sunday, the Heat, who finished the regular season 27th in the NBA in 3-point percentage at 34.4 percent, have now shot better than 44 percent from 3-point range on 30 or more attempts in six games this postseason. They did that just four times total between the regular season and play-in tournament.

So yes, projecting ahead, you could say that Denver is still well-positioned. Even on a night where the Heat scalded the nets to such a degree, the Nuggets were inches away from Jamal Murray burying a last-second 3-pointer that would have completed a 12-point comeback in the final 3:39 of regulation and forced overtime. They are road favorites for Game 3 and have -275 odds to win the series.

But also…

If Miami is to keep this up and shock the world one more time its role players, of course, will need to continue their torrid play. So will Bam Adebayo, who is averaging 23.5 points, 11 rebounds and 4.5 assists through two games (in the process creating an even starker gap between he and backup Cody Zeller, who was somehow a -14 in eight minutes in Game 2).

And, despite supplying great defense and a couple clutch buckets down the stretch, Jimmy Butler will need to break out, in case any of the above slips. He is quietly averaging 20.7 points on 38.9 percent field-goal shooting since Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals.

On Denver’s side, stay locked into Nikola Jokić’s totals. He crushed his points prop in Game 2 with 41 on 16-for-28 shooting, but fell short on assists with just four. And on the other side of the spectrum, Michael Porter Jr. could be due after shooting 3-for-17 from 3 across the first two games and struggling badly at the defensive end in the latter.