NBA futures odds, predictions: Best bets to win title, MVP and other top awards
The Bucks, Celtics, Nuggets or Suns? Giannis, Luka, the Joker or Embiid?
As the NBA gets set to kick off on Tuesday with two marquee matchups in primetime (Lakers vs. Nuggets, Suns vs. Warriors), we turn our attention to the futures market for the 2023-24 season.
Here are the top candidates to win the NBA Championship this season and some of the major awards, along with our picks for who we think the winner will actually be and a long shot worth sprinkling some change on for each category.
Boston Celtics +400
Milwaukee Bucks +400
Denver Nuggets +550
Phoenix Suns +650
Los Angeles Lakers +1300
Golden State Warriors +1400
Philadelphia 76ers +2000
Los Angeles Clippers +2000
Cleveland Cavaliers +2500
Dallas Mavericks +2500
Memphis Grizzlies +2500
Miami Heat +3000
Best Bet: Bucks +400
This might be the most obvious choice after Milwaukee pushed all its chips in and traded for Damian Lillard last month. While it cost the Bucks All-Star Jrue Holiday – a team leader and one of the NBA’s top on-ball defenders – the pairing of Dame, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton is downright scary.
The one thing the Bucks lacked in their two early playoff exits since winning it all three years ago was a killer on offense who could consistently extend defenses with long-range shooting, opening things up for the Greek Freak underneath. Now, they have that – and then some – with Lillard.
How are opponents going to possibly defend pick and rolls by Giannis and Dame? And on the other side of the ball, the Bucks have two great rim defenders in Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez, and while Lillard won’t provide much from night to night, players like Middleton, second-year forward MarJon Beauchamp and veteran Jae Crowder can defend more than adequately enough to help hide Dame’s deficiency.
I wouldn’t bet the over on their win total (54.5) because of the time it could take for all the parts, including a first-time head coach, to come together. But this team appears built for a championship.
Top Longshot: Heat +3000
Pat Riley put all of his offseason eggs in Lillard’s basket and was left with, well, egg on his face when Dame was traded to Milwaukee. But it’s precisely because the Heat have Riley – and Erik Spoelstra, who has shown year after year he can compete for titles no matter who’s on his roster – that this team can be expected to be in the mix again.
Riley is not known for standing pat. After losing out on Lillard and seeing forward Max Strauss (trade) and guard Gabe Vincent (free agency) exit in the offseason, expect him to bring in help before the February trade deadline, fortifying a veteran-laden roster one year removed from the NBA Finals.
And don’t forget these two things: 1) The Heat still have plenty of talent and playoff experience with Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo; and 2) in a potential playoff matchup with Milwaukee, you really think Butler won’t have revenge on his mind?
Nikola Jokic +450
Luka Doncic +600
Giannis Antetokounmpo +600
Jayson Tatum +700
Joel Embiid +800
Stephen Curry +1400
Kevin Durant +1800
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +1800
Devin Booker +2000
Donovan Mitchell +3000
Anthony Edwards +3300
Damian Lillard +3500
Best Bet: Luka Doncic +600
With the exception of four MVPs since 2000, every winner has fallen in a five-year age range: 24-28. Doncic turned 24 last February.
Now he enters this season in the best shape of his NBA career after competing with Slovenia over the summer in the FIBA World Cup, where he averaged 27-7-6, with 2.5 steals.
The numbers for Doncic will no doubt be there with a threat for a triple-double every night, but for him to win MVP, his team needs to compete for a top seed with the Nuggets, Suns, Lakers and Warriors.
The Mavericks should be much improved this season, with Kyrie Irving there at the start and the additions of former Celtics 3-and-D wing Grant Williams, Seth Curry, Dante Exum, Richaun Holmes and first-round rookies Dereck Lively II and OMax Prosper.
Top Longshot: Joel Embiid +800
It might be a stretch to call Embiid a longshot since he won it last year and has the fifth-best odds of winning it again. But with a new coach, a new system and an unhappy superstar teammate, there are a lot of unknowns surrounding him this season.
There are some things going in his favor. History says that once a player wins his first MVP, he tends to win it the next year, too. It’s happened six times in the last 20 years.
While the Sixers are a bit of a mess at the moment, Embiid is their steadying force. And with James Harden a trade candidate at some point this season (and who knows when he’ll even suit up for the Sixers?), Embiid’s numbers have a chance to be even better than they were last season when he averaged 33-10-4, with two blocks.
It could take some time to work out the kinks, but new coach Nick Nurse should also allow Embiid to be more of a playmaker in his system and less of an isolation artist like the center has been in the past.
The biggest concern is the Sixers themselves. Can they win enough games in a top-heavy East to keep Embiid relevant in the conversation?
Victor Wembanyama +125
Chet Holmgren +300
Scoot Henderson +300
Brandon Miller +1400
Amen Thompson +3500
Cam Whitmore +2500
Julian Strawther +4000
Ausar Thompson +5000
Keyonte George +5000
Best Bet: Chet Holmgren +300
The easy – and obvious – choice here is Wembanyama, but we’ll take a bigger payoff with another unicorn in Holmgren, whom many have forgotten about for this award since he was a part of the 2022 draft class.
While Wembanyama’s Spurs might struggle to get to 25 wins, Holmgren’s Thunder should contend in the West. While being competitive as a team is not the biggest factor for this award, it does play a role down the stretch when your team is on SportsCenter every night.
Of course, Holmgren has to stay healthy to have a chance. There’s a reason he’s eligible for ROY in his second season.
Top Longshot: Scoot Henderson +300
At those odds, Henderson wouldn’t normally be considered a longshot, but anyone beating Wembanyama this season would be considered an upset.
We’re going with Scoot for two historical reasons:
Guards have won ROY honors 16 times in the last 20 seasons (80%).
The ROY has been drafted in the top 5 in 16 of the past 20 seasons, but only 40% of the time has the winner been picked No. 1 overall.
Henderson, picked No. 3 overall by the Blazers, takes over for Lillard and will get all the minutes he can handle. Portland loves what it saw in him during the Summer League and in the preseason.
Mark Daigneault +800
Adrian Griffin +900
Joe Mazzulla +1200
Jason Kidd +1200
Darvin Ham +1400
Nick Nurse +1600
Frank Vogel +1300
Taylor Jenkins +1400
Rick Carlisle +1600
Erik Spoelstra +1800
Best Bet: Mark Daigneault +800
COY is one of the more difficult NBA awards to predict because it usually involves nuance and a myriad of factors. But ultimately, it needs to be a coach who exceeds expectations and takes his team to the next level.
That seems to define what lays ahead for Daigneault, who has a nice young squad, with rising superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the additions of Holmgren and former EuroLeague MVP Vasilije Micic, and the expected second-year growth of ROY runner-up Jalen Williams.
Top Longshot: Eric Spoelstra +1800
There are going to be a lot of low expectations for the team that lost in the NBA Finals just four months ago. Losing a couple of key rotation players and not pulling off the trade for Lillard will do that.
But that’s what makes Spoelstra such a compelling candidate for this award. If he can get to 50 victories (5 above the Heat’s win total) and grab a playoff spot, that could be enough.
Jaren Jackson Jr. +450
Evan Mobely +650
Giannis Antetokounmpo +750
Bam Adebayo +900
Anthony Davis +1000
Joel Embiid +1300
Brook Lopez +1400
Rudy Gobert +1400
Victor Wembanyama +1500
Jrue Holiday +1500
Mikal Bridges +1800
OG Anunoby +1900
Best Bet: Evan Mobely +650
Top Longshot: Victor Wembanyama +1500
Immanuel Quickley +800
Malcolm Brogdon +800
Norman Powell +1000
Malik Monk +1100
Derrick White +1300
Bobby Portis +1500
Rui Hachimura +2000
Chris Paul +2000
Best Bet: Immanuel Quickley +800
Top Longshot: Chris Paul +2000
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.
