NBA MVP Futures Best Bets: Nikola Jokic vs Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Joel Embiid Out

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the MVP race between Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with Joel Embiid injured.

MVP Race: Shai Gilgeous Alexander (+300)

The MVP race is starting to sort itself out thanks to Joel Embiid dealing with an injury and the NBA’s new 65-game requirement to win the award.

At this current pace and point in the season, it doesn’t seem likely Embiid will reach 65 games. Fighting through an injury for an MVP, or any award, is more than likely not an option for most players or a franchise that is contending.

After leaving the 76ers previous game with an injury, Embiid’s odds dropped to +2000 or off the boards for MVP. Embiid was the favorite two weeks ago, so now it’s a two-man race for MVP between Nikola Jokic (-125) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+300).

We could have a case of voter fatigue as well when it comes to centers or Jokic in particular. Jokic and Embiid have won MVP the past three seasons and the last time four-straight centers took home MVP was back in the late 1970’s entering 1980.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) is a fresh face who is taking the lead by storm. Oklahoma City is 32-15 and 0.5 game back of Denver and 1.0 game behind Minnesota for the No. 1 seed in the West. The Thunder play the Nuggets tonight as -5.5 point home favorites, so chances are OKC will jump Denver, and SGA’s odds drop.

If OKC is the No. 1 seed, SGA is a slam dunk for MVP, but otherwise, he’s likely a top-three candidate with odds and he won’t be No. 3 if you catch my drift.

The Thunder’s franchise cornerstone has averaged 31.3 PPG (3rd), 6.4 APG (16th), and 5.6 RPG (56th) this season. SGA is posting a career-high in steals (2.2 SPG), field goal percentage (54.7%), and 2.2 turnovers per game, his lowest in four seasons.

SGA is doing everything possible to reel the Thunder to a one-seed with the fourth-highest usage rate (32.1%) and one of the best offensive ratings in the league (121.1).

There are studs like Luka Doncic (+550) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+750) in the MVP race chasing Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander, but I will take my shot on SGA.

I grabbed SGA for MVP at +300 odds and would go down to +150. If the Thunder beat the Nuggets tonight (Wednesday), then SGA’s odds might be +150 on Thursday.

Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MVP (1u)
Odds via DraftKings

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