NBA MVP Odds at All-Star Break: Can Anyone Catch Nikola Jokic?

The 2023-24 NBA MVP race has been a little wild with the new 65-game threshold to win the award being in place for the first time this season.

That's taken Joel Embiid, who was the favorite for most of the season, out of the running after he tore his meniscus, potentially ending his season. As a result, a familiar face is at the top of the odds...

... Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic.

A two-time MVP and the reigning NBA Finals MVP, Jokic is a -140 favorite to take home the MVP award, sitting in front of Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo and Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic.

In the latest ESPN straw poll for the MVP, Jokic received 69 of the 100 first-place votes, with Gilgeous-Alexander (24 first-place votes) being the only player to receive more than three first-place votes.

There is a wide gap between Jokic, SGA, and the rest of the field in both the ESPN poll and the latest betting odds.

Can anyone catch Jokic this season?

The Nuggets big man is once again posting gaudy on/off numbers, showing just how valuable he is to Denver while nearly averaging a triple-double. The Nuggets are also just three games out of the No. 1 seed in the West, currently holding the No. 4 spot.

This is interesting -- and could be an argument for SGA -- as only two MVPs since 1983 have won the award without finishing in the top three in their respective conference during the regular season. Those players are Jokic and Russell Westbrook, who both won the MVP as the No. 6 seed.

Let's take a look at the latest odds to win MVP this season:

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Jokic is heavily favored to win MVP, and if the Nuggets make a second-half run to secure a top seed in the West, it's hard to see him squandering this lead.

Denver is +8.6 points per 100 possessions when Jokic is on the floor this season, but -8.2 points per 100 possessions when he is off. If that's not value, I don't know what is. Jokic also leads the NBA in PIE (Player Impact Estimate) at the All-Star break.

If there is a dark horse to consider in this race, it's Doncic.

The Mavericks star is averaging 34.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 9.5 assists per game, ranking second in the NBA in Player Impact Estimate. However, Dallas hasn't enjoyed the team success it needs for Doncic to win MVP -- at this point in the season.

The Mavs are just the No. 7 seed in the West, sitting four games out of a coveted top-three seed for the MVP candidate. If Doncic can't lead Dallas out of the play-in tournament conversation, it's going to be hard to justify giving him the MVP.

Still, the Mavs star learly has the numbers to make a strong case. Dallas has been hot since the trade deadline, winning six in a row heading into All-Star Weekend.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.