NBA picks: Best player prop bets for Mavericks-Suns on Christmas Day

The Christmas Day NBA slate wraps up at 10:30 p.m. ET with the Dallas Mavericks in Arizona to take on the Phoenix Suns. We’re going to go over some player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook we like for Mavs-Suns.

Dante Exum O21.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts (-120)

The Mavericks have been without PG Kyrie Irving for most of December and Exum has stepped up big time. This line is super surprising for a lot of reasons. First, the over/under is 238 and the spread is short at Suns -4.5. So we could see a very high scoring, close basketball contest. Exum is averaging 16.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game in nine games in December. I’m not good at math but I believe that’s 25.1 points + rebounds + assists on average per game this month. Considering the line is just -120, there’s a ton of value there. We know the Suns don’t play much defense and Exum has hit the over on this line in seven of the past eight games.

Dereck Lively O16.5 Pts + Rebs (-125)

If Lively plays, this line has a lot of value as well. The Suns have already ruled out C Jusuf Nurkic due to personal reasons. That would mean some combination of Drew Eubanks, Udoka Azubuike and Chime Metu would be tasked with defending the paint and Lively. Our biggest concern would be some kind of minutes restriction, which could be why this line is so low. If Lively isn’t held back and can play around 20-30 minutes, he shouldn’t have an issue scoring down low in what is expected to be a shootout.

Drew Eubanks O6.5 rebounds (-195)

This is an alternate line on DraftKings Sportsbook and has less value than the two above. But it should be pretty safe given the Suns won’t have Nurkic and may need to use Eubanks for more minutes inside. We also can’t get any props on Azubuike, which would have been nice. There are also some interesting first quarter rebounding props. Kevin Durant O2.5 rebounds in the first at -115 feels decent. There’s a chance KD stays in for all of the first quarter and starts the second with the second unit before getting a breather. If Eubanks can stay out of foul trouble, that is also a plus. If Lively ends up sitting for the Mavericks, they’d also be super thin in the frontcourt, which would be a big boost for Eubanks’ props.