NBA picks: Heat vs. 76ers prediction, odds, over/under, spread, injury report for Monday, March 18

Herro has been ruled out, while Butler is questionable for Miami. Nikola Jovic has also been ruled out for the Heat. The 76ers are 2-point favorites and the total is now 208.5. I’ll wait for Butler’s final status before giving an updated pick.

The Miami Heat (37-30) and Philadelphia 76ers (37-30) square off Monday night in a matchup of two Eastern Conference contenders trying to tread water as the playoffs approach. The Heat and 76ers would meet in the first play-in game if the season ended today but both are just a half game behind the Pacers for the sixth and final automatic playoff spot. This is the third meeting between these teams, with the Heat winning the previous two contests.

Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler didn’t play in Miami’s win Sunday over the Pistons. We’ll see if the Heat get either player back when they submit their official injury report later in the day. The 76ers are still without Joel Embiid and De’Anthony Melton, while Tobias Harris is questionable with an ankle issue.

The 76ers are 2.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 209. Philadelphia is -135 on the moneyline while Miami is +114.

Heat vs. 76ers, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: Heat +2.5

Miami is 5-4-1 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back and a league-best 12-5-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage. The Heat are more likely to get Butler back than Herro, so they’re potentially getting a boost even with some fatigue. The 76ers are just 6-7 ATS with a rest advantage on the season.

The Heat won both games between these teams, including a contest about a month ago that was more representative of the current makeup of both rosters. Even though the 76ers are 25-18 ATS as favorites, I’ll take the Heat to cover in this game.

Over/Under: Under 209

Even though both previous meetings between these teams went over this line, I think the current trend suggests this game going under. The Heat have gone under their totals in six straight games, while the 76ers have hit the under in five straight. It’s a low number but I think these teams have shown they can defend well enough to have the under hit.