Heat vs 76ers odds, picks, predictions: Bet on defensive game on Monday

The Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers each enter Monday’s game at 37-30 and in the NBA Play-In Tournament if the season ended today. Interestingly enough, Philadelphia is 20-15 at home while Miami is 20-15 on the road.

All the best NBA betting sites have the 76ers as 2.5 point home favorites. Due to injuries, I find this is a hard game to predict. But the one pick I’m certain in is that under 209.5 points will be combined for in this game. I’m using BetMGM for this bet, where odds are -110.

Injuries are where I want to start. Joel Embiid is still out for the 76ers, and Tobias Harris is questionable as of the time of publish. Harris missed Saturday’s game and is a 17.1 point per game scorer.

On the Heat’s side, Jimmy Butler missed yesterday’s game and is questionable as of time of publish as well. The Heat will be without Kevin Love, Tyler Herro, and Josh Richardson, while Nikola Jovic is questionable despite playing yesterday.

The last couple of games have been better for the 76ers offensively since Tyrese Maxey returned. They scored 105 and 109 in their last two games. Kelly Oubre Jr. has been on a heater in recent weeks, and Buddy Hield has proven to be a flawless fit.

Efficiency is still an area the 76ers need to get more consistent at. They shot just 31.7 percent from deep Saturday after shooting 48.6 percent in the game prior. They don’t score much in the paint and rely very heavily on the three.

Miami is coming off a back-to-back against the lowly Pistons. Although they won both games and have been bitten with injuries as of late, the season-long trend of their offense being one of the lowest scoring in the league continues.

Bam Adebayo could be the ultimate x-factor with the 76ers’ lack of size and struggles in the post without Embiid. Adebayo was brilliant against Detroit in both games scoring and on the glass (42 points and 26 combined rebounds in both games)

While the Heat’s offense is below average, their defense has shown the ability to suffocate offenses. They recently held the Nuggets to just 100 points on 33.3% percent shooting from deep before their two great defensive games against the Pistons.

Although the 76ers offense has woken up the last two games, I don’t put much stock in them scoring 109 against Charlotte. Their offense is wildly inconsistent without Embiid, and that’s with or without Harris who may not play.

Both teams rank in the second half of the league in pace. While Maxey and Terry Rozier are fast break threats, these offenses typically play slow in the half court which will limit each teams’ possessions and scoring opportunities.

I’m not surprised the 76ers are the slight favorites in this game. But I don’t like them enough to pick them since it’s hard to know which version will show up. With or without Butler, Miami’s offense has struggled mightily without Tyler Herro this year.

When it’s all said and done, these are some reasons why I’m more confident in a lower scoring game between these teams than anything else.

1. Under 209.5 combined points on BetMGM (-110)

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