NBA picks: Timberwolves vs. Pacers prediction, odds, over/under, spread, injury report for Thursday, March 7

The Minnesota Timberwolves (43-19) and Indiana Pacers (35-28) square off Thursday in a matchup featuring two of the top young talents in the NBA. The Timberwolves are coming into this game off a win over the Trail Blazers, while the Pacers also won in their last contest against the Mavericks. This is the second meeting between these teams, with Minnesota taking the first contest 127-109. Indiana was missing star point guard Tyrese Haliburton for that game.

Timberwolves big man Karl-Anthony Towns, who was originally listed out, is now sidelined indefinitely with a torn meniscus. The Pacers are going to be without Bennedict Mathurin and Doug McDermott.

The Pacers are slight 1.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook and the total sits at 227.5. Indiana is -120 on the moneyline while Minnesota is +100.

Timberwolves vs. Pacers, 7 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: Pacers -1.5

Indiana is one of the better teams against the spread at home with a 17-13-2 mark. The Pacers haven’t quite clicked as a home favorite with a 9-10-1 ATS record but this is closer to a pick ‘em than a true advantage. With Towns sidelined and Haliburton back in, I do expect this result to be much different from the first meeting. The Timberwolves have struggled on the road this season, going 16-15 ATS. They are 5-5 ATS as road underdogs.

The Pacers are the top scoring team in the league but their offense is far more efficient at home. The Timberwolves have a lockdown defense when they play at home, but they lose about seven points per 100 possessions on that side of the ball on the road. Without Towns, I think that’s the difference in this game. Give me Indiana to cover tonight.

Over/Under: Over 227.5

Indiana is 20-12 to the over as the home team, although it went just 1-3 to the over in the recent four-game homestand. The Timberwolves are 18-13 to the over as the road side. The last matchup went over this number and that was in Minnesota with Towns and without Haliburton. I think the Timberwolves slip a bit defensively and the balance of power shifts towards the Pacers for this encounter. Give me the over Thursday evening.