NBA predictions, picks Monday, Jan. 30: Nets vs. Lakers and more

While much of the betting world is transfixed by the barrage of Super Bowl lines and props flooding the market, there are still bets worth making in Monday’s NBA betting slate, which features eight matchups full of intrigue and betting value against the spread.

We were hit-or-miss last week with our NBA picks and predictions, but there’s plenty to like on the board, headlined by two underdogs that aren’t catching enough respect from oddsmakers against inconsistent favorites.

Here are our favorite bets to make at BetMGM ahead of Monday’s action:

• Lakers +8.5 @ Nets
• Thunder +5.5 vs. Warriors
• Wizards -5.5 @ Spurs

Nets vs. Lakers prediction and analysis (7:40 p.m. ET, NBA TV)

I knew this line would get out of control the moment the Lakers announced that LeBron James (ankle) and Anthony Davis (foot) would both be ruled out for Monday’s contest. Sure enough, the Nets are dealing as massive favorites despite injury issues of their own.

The big one, obviously, is the absence of Kevin Durant (knee), who has missed each of his team’s last nine games and won’t be back anytime soon. Unsurprisingly, the Nets have lost six of those nine games outright (4-5 ATS) and own the NBA’s ninth-worst net rating in that span (-1.8) – even worse than the Lakers (-0.2) over the same stretch.

Brooklyn could also be without Ben Simmons (knee), who missed Saturday’s game and has played fewer than 30 minutes in four of his last five games. The Nets own just one win by more than seven points since losing Durant, and I don’t expect another one here.

Nets vs. Lakers pick

• Lakers +8.5 (BetMGM)

Thunder vs. Warriors prediction and analysis (8:10 p.m. ET)

This matchup plays into some of the best betting trends in the entire league, which makes an already juicy spot for the Thunder all the more attractive.

Entering Monday, Oklahoma City owns the best ATS record in the league (31-17-1) and the second-best mark as an underdog (24-11-1 ATS), winning a ridiculous 17 of those 36 games outright (47.2%). The Thunder also owns the fourth-best ATS record at home (16-9) and have won six of their last eight home games by double digits.

Compare that to the Warriors, who are the league’s worst bet on the road (7-16 ATS) with the seventh-worst net rating (-6.4) in that spot. These teams are separated by just one game in the West standings, and I’d expect OKC to hold serve in this one and extend its stellar run as a home ‘dog.

Thunder vs. Warriors pick

• Thunder +5.5 (BetMGM)

Betting on the NBA?

Spurs vs. Wizards prediction and analysis (8:10 p.m. ET)

I hesitate to lay this many points on the road with the Wizards, even as they ride a five-game win streak into Monday’s road tilt. But I can’t ignore just how awful the Spurs have been over the last month.

San Antonio was already the NBA’s worst team by net rating (-8.6) heading into the new year, but it’s gotten even worse since the calendar flipped to 2023. Dating back to Jan. 1, the Spurs are 2-12 and have been outscored by 11.9 points per 100 possessions – easily the worst mark in the league – with a five-game losing streak heading into this week.

Those five losses have come by an average of 16.4 points, and San Antonio has lost by six or more points in nine of 14 games in January. With leading scorer Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) set to return to an already red-hot Wizards squad on Monday, I don’t expect this game to be close, either.