NBA prop bets Dec. 30: Fade Anthony Davis in tough rebounding matchup vs. Timberwolves

Fading Anthony Davis against the Minnesota Timberwolves is the centrepiece of today's three NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Davis is one of the league's best board men but Minnesota is as tough a matchup as he could draw. Elsewhere, Tyrese Maxey is worth fading against the Chicago Bulls while Julius Randle is in line for a huge night.

NBA oddsas of 10:25 a.m. ET 12/30/2023.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Davis under 12.5 rebounds (-139)

Davis is averaging the second-most rebounds per game (12.3) and has cleared this total in 16 of 30 contests but I think this line is a bridge too far.

The Timberwolves allow the fourth-fewest rebounds per game (49.8) and the fewest rebounds per game to opposing point centres (12.33), according to Fantasy Pros.

Rudy Gobert averages 12.0 boards on his own and he got the better of Davis on the glass when these teams met in Minnesota on Dec. 21. Gobert corralled 12 rebounds while Davis was held to just eight, his second-fewest on the season.

Back at Target Center tonight, not much should change.

It's worth noting that at the time of writing Davis is listed as questionable with an ankle bruise. But Los Angeles' big man carries an injury designation into most games and has played in six straight despite being listed as questionable for all of them.

Keystat: Davis averages 11.7 rebounds per game on the road compared to 12.8 rebounds at home.

Quick picks

Maxey under 28.5 points (-108): Fading a player who just dropped 42 points is risky business but it's hard to believe Maxey will replicate that performance on the second leg of a back-to-back in a tough matchup.

The Bulls allow the fewest points per game (20.28) to opposing point guards and Maxey has gone under this mark in all four of his games on no rest this season.

Maxey has also gone under this total in three of his five games without Joel Embiid this year. With the reigning MVP sidelined Chicago should throw the kitchen sink at stopping Philadelphia's point guard.

Randle over 26.5 points (-113): The Indiana Pacers' refusal to play defence is starting to bite them in the rear. The team has dropped seven of 11 games dating back to the In-Season Tournament Final allowing 124.3 points in those contests.

The Pacers have the third-worst defensive rating (120.4) in the NBA and are allowing the most points per game to opposing power forwards (29.2).

That should be music to Randle's ears. New York's PF has steadied the ship after a dreadful start to the season and is averaging 27.5 PPG in December.