Spurs vs. Timberwolves odds and predictions, Victor Wembanyama props: Top rookie to shine Wednesday night
The Spurs have dropped 14 consecutive games and are desperate for a win. Tonight, they’ll look to end their streak against the No. 1 team in the Western Conference, the Minnesota Timberwolves.
We're diving into the Spurs vs. T'Wolves odds, props, and predictions to go with rookie Victor Wembanyama's props picks.
The Timberwolves own one of the best defenses in the NBA and are getting a career year from Anthony Edwards. Despite Minnesota's significant advantage on paper, the Spurs played them competitively in their first matchup.
A lopsided third quarter ultimately decided the game, as the Spurs didn’t have enough firepower to overcome the scoring differential in the fourth quarter. Tonight, they’ll get another shot at the Timberwolves. Take a look at the betting insight for the game below.
Odds for Spurs vs. Timberwolves: Point spread, moneyline, total for Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023
Here are the Spurs vs. Timberwolves from the top betting sites:
Spurs vs. Timberwolves betting trends
- The Spurs are 3-2 ATS in their last five games
- The Timberwolves are 4-6-0 ATS in the last 10 games against the Spurs
- The over/under is 5-5-0 between the two in the last 10 games
Victor Wembanyama props vs. Timberwolves
Here are some Wembanyama props against the T'Wolves, courtesy of DraftKings:
- o/u 19.5 points (-108)
- o/u 8.5 total rebounds (-111)
- o/u 2.5 assists (+114)
- o/u 1.5 blocks (+150)
- o/u 1.5 3-pointers made (-125)
Here are our favorite plays of the night.
- OVER points: Wembanyama is on his best scoring streak of the year. He hasn’t had any explosive games in that stretch, but he has topped 20 points in four straight games. That includes his last two games, in which he played less than 30 minutes. Although Minnesota has two solid big men to throw his way, neither has the foot speed to keep up with him or make things challenging for him on the perimeter. In the first meeting between the two, he went 12-for-21 from the field and 3-for-7 from deep, thanks to his quality looks on the perimeter against slower defenders. We like a similar performance from him tonight.
- OVER made threes: Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns both own one of the best defensive win shares in the league. What they do well is protect the rim. The Timberwolves are third in the league in points in the paint allowed per game. That may deter the rookie from attacking the paint and force him to look for easier shots, which he should be able to do effectively, given his advantage on the perimeter against them. In their last matchup, he shot seven three-point attempts. Look for at least five attempts in this one, the minimum amount he has taken in his last three games.
- UNDER rebounds: The Timberwolves are a half-court team. They like to slow things down and limit the number of possessions per game. They are tied for 16th in offensive pace in the NBA (101.3). That’s nearly six fewer possessions than the first-place Pacers. With fewer opportunities and having to battle two opposing seven-footers for rebounds all game, we don’t like his odds of topping this number tonight.
Spurs vs. Timberwolves analysis: Minnesota’s slower offense gives Spurs a chance to compete
The Timberwolves defense is arguably the best in the NBA. Gobert, Towns, and Edwards are all top 11 in defensive win shares. They allow the third-fewest points in the paint per game and own the best defensive rating in the league.
Putting up points against Minnesota is a challenge for anyone, especially a team near the bottom of the league in scoring averages. However, the Spurs have shown that they are capable of explosions on any given night.
San Antonio scored at least 120 points in eight contests this season. They have done so in two of their last three games (Denver and Atlanta). If they can replicate their scoring success in this one, they’ll at least have a chance to win, thanks to the Timberwolves’ scoring challenges.
The T'Wolves rely heavily on Edwards and Towns to put the ball in the hoop.
Both score 20-plus points per contest and can create their own shot, but the drop-off is pretty steep after that. Their next two highest scorers are their centers, Gobert and Naz Reid, who rely heavily on others to create good looks for them.
The Spurs’ defense is far behind their offense, but the offensive challenge in front of them in this matchup isn’t as steep as what other teams present. If they can stop one of the Timberwolves’ key guys from having an explosive night, they will be right in the mix at the end of the game.
Spurs vs. Timberwolves predictions
The Spurs are 20th in the league at scoring in the paint. Learning to score on the perimeter all season long will serve them well tonight against a defense that thrives at defending the painted area.
Quality looks will be there due to the lack of foot speed for the Timberwolves’ big men. If the Spurs shoot decently from the field, look for this one to be much closer than the listed spread.
We’re taking the Spurs to cover the spread, although Minnesota still notches the victory.
