NBA prop picks January 28: Back Ayton against the Spurs

There are 11 NBA games this Saturday and we’ve picked three props worth wagering on.

The pregame narrative: Deandre Ayton is a good bet to score against the San Antonio Spurs while Ayo Dosunmu should clear a modest assist line in Orlando. We’re also fading Trae Young against a tough Los Angeles Clippers defence.

Find all our best NBA props picks for January 28 below.

Odds as of 12:41 p.m. ET on 01/28/2023.

NBA prop picks

Best Bet: Ayton over 20.5 points (-107)

Ayton’s had a rocky season with the Phoenix Suns and has only cleared this mark in two of his past six games. But that doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage of a plus matchup tonight.

San Antonio’s defence is awful — point blank.

The Spurs concede the most points per game (122.1), have the worst defensive rating (120) and allow opponents to shoot a whopping 51% from the field (also the worst). So it’s not surprising that they also allow the most points in the paint of any team (55.4), too.

That’s where Ayton makes his hay. He scored 25 points on 71.4% shooting when Phoenix played San Antonio earlier this season and is due for another big one tonight.

Devin Booker, Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne are all sidelined so expect Ayton to carry the load.

Key stat: The Spurs also allow an average of 24.27 points to centres per game, according to Fantasy Pros, which is the fifth-worst mark in the league.

Quick picks

Dosunmu over 2.5 assists (-108): For a point guard, Dosunmu doesn’t average as many helpers as one would think. The sophomore out of Illinois is averaging just north of this number (2.7) but has a favourable matchup tonight against the Orlando Magic.

The Magic allow the fourth-most assists per game to point guards (9.29). They also allow the eighth-most total assists per game (25.9).

Dosunmu has cleared this mark in three of his past five games with two five-plus assist performances sprinkled in.

Young under 25.5 points (-120): Young is averaging 27.1 points per game this season but we’re not buying into the hype. He has the 111th-ranked field-goal percentage (42.6%) and is totalling under 20 PPG without free throws.

Young has also gone under this mark in four of his past six games and is playing a Clippers team that is rabid on defence. Los Angeles allows the fifth-fewest points to floor generals in the league (22.63).