NBA Southwest Division betting preview: Grizzlies will miss Ja Morant

The Memphis Grizzlies’ rise to the West’s second-best team last regular season was only supposed to be a start. This was supposed to be the season they built on that success. Ja Morant’s 25-game suspension throws a wrench in those plans.

To keep them afloat until his return, the Grizzlies traded for Marcus Smart. But the former Boston Celtic is really replacing three players when you consider Tyus Jones and Dillon Brooks are also gone. Suddenly, Memphis doesn’t feel like such a lock to do anything.

Especially not with the Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans nipping at their heels in the Southwest.

I truly feel like this division has three teams capable of making the Western Conference finals if things break the right way. In fact, we just saw the Mavericks in that spot two years ago, and the Grizzlies were two wins away from joining them that year.

The third team I think has that type of potential is the New Orleans Pelicans, and that’s obviously very dependent on the health of Zion Williamson. But when you consider they were a top-two team in the West when he was healthy last season, it’s not that farfetched.

The problem with each team is how low their floors can be, and we saw that with the Mavericks and Pelicans last year when they missed the playoffs after Williamson and Luka Doncic went down with injuries. I think it’ll play out with the Grizzlies without Morant for the first month-plus of this season. These teams just don’t seem to be good enough to tread water if they have to deal with extended absences by their best players.

Ultimately, I think the Mavs and Pelicans make the play-in tournament at the very least, and Dallas would be my pick from this division to make the playoffs. The Grizzlies are going to struggle to dig their way out of an early-season hole once Morant returns, missing the playoffs completely.

As timelines go, I guess the Houston Rockets are technically closer to being “there” than the San Antonio Spurs, but it sure doesn’t feel like it when you see that 7-foot-4 alien on the other team.

But the Rockets have several top lottery picks, including Jalen Green, Jabari Smith and Amen Thompson, and they signed veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks along with head coach Ime Udoka, so it’s about time for them to turn a corner this season. I don’t think their progress results in a playoff appearance, but hey, they won’t be the worst team in the NBA any more.

The Spurs also won’t be making the playoffs, but the future is so bright in San Antonio with Victor Wembanyama on the squad.

I said it once, but I’ll say it one more time: the Rookie of the Year race is already over. I only needed to see a couple preseason games to draw that conclusion. As long as he stays healthy, Wembanyama is going to win the award.

From everything I’ve seen, the hype is real. The ball-handling, the shooting, the rim protection, all at his size, it’s unreal. Wembanyama will suffer through the same struggles all rookies do, but he’ll also have some moments that make our collective jaws drop, and that’ll be well worth the losing San Antonio does this season. Because it’ll be quite obvious they won’t be doing much losing in the near future.