NC State vs North Carolina Predictions, Picks, and Odds

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16 March 2024

NC State vs North Carolina Predictions, Picks, and Odds

UNC came out flat against Pitt, but with a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament on the line, our college basketball picks are tabbing the favorites to bring the fight to NC State and decisively take the ACC crown.

It’s not the ACC tournament final we expected. But those new college basketball bettors in North Carolina aren’t complaining.

The top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels were forecasted to reach Saturday’s ACC Tournament bracket finale, but their opponents have crashed this party harder than Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn come wedding season.

The 10th-seeded North Carolina State Wolfpack have won four straight games, including victories over No. 2 Duke and No. 3 Virginia, to slide into tonight’s final. Can the Wolfpack pick up one more win and cement their live March Madness odds?

I break down the conference tournament odds for the ACC tournament final and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for NC State vs. North Carolina on March 16.

NC State vs North Carolina best odds

NC State vs North Carolina picks and predictions

The Wolfpack’s run has been fun, but UNC isn’t joking around when it comes to a shot at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

With Tennessee getting bounced from the SEC tournament, the window is open for North Carolina to earn a top seed in the Big Dance. It will take a tournament title and a convincing win over NC State after UNC barely pushed past Pitt in the semifinals.

The Tar Heels are a tough draw for a NC State team not only playing its fifth game in five days but also coming off an overtime period in Friday’s comeback win over Virginia. Thanks to a double-bye, UNC is playing just its third game in a row.

The Wolfpack have been able to capitalize on an inside-out effort, working hard for points around the rim and then kicking it out to open shooters when the defense collapses. North Carolina, unfortunately, has one of the best defenses — inside and out — in the entire country.

The Heels won both matchups with their state rivals this season, flexing that elite-level defense in both outings. They thumped NC State 67-54 in Raleigh on January 10, limiting the home team to just 27% shooting (including 2 of 20 from 3-point range).

North Carolina pulled away for a 79-70 win in Chapel Hill on March 2. That most recent meeting saw the Wolfpack hold a 45-37 lead at the halftime break, but UNC tighten the bolts on defense and checked NC State to just 22% shooting and 25 points in the final 20 minutes.

On offense, the Heels are a handful, especially for a team running on fumes like North Carolina State. North Carolina can push pace, playing the third-fastest tempo in the ACC and presenting a major shift in gears compared to NC State’s last two foes. That stingy defense quickly gets flipped into easy buckets as UNC is one of the best transition attacks in the land.

But the Tar Heels can also battle in the halfcourt set, work the ball around and make the Wolfpack play defense for the bulk of the shot clock. North Carolina has the size in the frontcourt to not only bang with the Pack’s bigs but keep them off the glass and limit any second-chance buckets.

North Carolina came out flat against Pittsburgh in the semifinals and had to dig its way out of an early hole in the first 25 minutes. There will be more urgency for Hubert Davis’ guys in this final. A tournament title and one-sided win is something the Selection Committee can’t deny when it comes to handing out No. 1 seeds.

The majority of game models are calling for between an eight and nine-point win from the Tar Heels. And if we’ve learned anything from yesterday’s seven-point margin (I bet UNC -6.5 while the line closed -7.5), we want to get the best of the number.

My best bet: North Carolina -8.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

NC State vs North Carolina same-game parlay

Stay tuned for an NC State vs. North Carolina SGP pick — coming soon!

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NC State vs North Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis

After North Carolina State’s thrilling win over Virginia in overtime Friday night, oddsmakers opened UNC as 8.5-point favorites. As other books lit this game up, the market moved to -9 and sits as high as Heels -9.5 on Saturday morning.

The Tar Heels were wire-to-wire dominant against Florida State in the quarterfinals but started slow in the semifinals, falling down quickly to Pitt and needing the opening 25 minutes to even up the scoreboard.

North Carolina’s top-tier defense took over in the second half, and UNC came through with a 7-point win but burned anyone late to the party laying -7.5 or higher. The Tar Heels are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games.

North Carolina State rallied late against UVA and got a game-tying buzzer-beater from Michael O’Connell to force overtime, eventually winning 73-65 as closing 2.5-point underdogs in the semis.

The Wolfpack have put together one of the most memorable runs in ACC tournament history, winning four straight as a No. 10 seed, including a quarterfinal victory over Duke. North Carolina State has covered in three of those four tournament wins, but faces a UNC squad that beat it twice this season.

The Wolfpack were locked down at home, losing 67-54 to the Tar Heels as 2.5-point home pups back on January 10. However, North Carolina State put a scare in their rivals with a strong first half in their most recent meeting, but blew an 8-point half time lead and lost 79-70 in Chapel Hill, covering as a 11-point underdog on March 2.

Both of those games finished below the closing totals of 154 and 156. Saturday’s championship total hit the board as high as 148.5 at some books with others leading with 147 points. That has since been bet down to 145 points, as of Saturday morning.

The Wolfpack would have posted three straight Under results if not for the extra period against Virginia last night. North Carolina is 1-1 O/U in its two tournament games so far and has played Under in five of its last seven games overall.

NC State vs North Carolina betting trend to know

North Carolina has covered the spread in 15 of its last 23 games (+6.20 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for NC State vs. North Carolina.

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