College Basketball: Atlantic Coast Conference

NC State vs. UNC Prediction, Picks & Odds: Shootout in ACC Rivalry?

sportsbookreview.com

02 March 2024

NC State vs. UNC Prediction, Picks & Odds: Shootout in ACC Rivalry?

In-state rivals NC State and UNC square off as the college basketball regular season winds down, and we offer our best NC State vs. UNC prediction based on the best college basketball odds.

NC State (17-11, 9-8 ACC) has four losses in its last six contests and dropped four of its last five road games. As a result, the Wolfpack will likely need to win the ACC tournament to earn a bid to the NCAA tournament. NC State entered Friday ranked 80th in the NET and had a 2-5 record in Quad 1 games, and it hasn't won more than two games in a row since Jan. 6.

Meanwhile, North Carolina (22-6, 14-3 ACC) has a one-game lead over Duke for the ACC regular-season title and is a serious contender by our March Madness odds.

The Tar Heels lost three of five games from late January to mid-February, but they bounced back with three wins in a row.

DraftKings has North Carolina at +800 odds to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, and it would likely need to win out and win the ACC tournament to be in consideration for a spot on the top line.

Here is our best NC State vs. UNC prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NC State vs. UNC prediction

Over 153 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

NC State and UNC played a low-scoring 67-54 affair in their first meeting in Raleigh earlier this season, but that sort of defensive struggle is uncommon between these rivals. In 13 of the prior 15 matchups, the winning team scored at least 77 points, with the two teams combining for 150-plus points 11 times in that span.

North Carolina has held its last two opponents to an average of 57.5 points per game, but we are not buying much stock in that. Those two games were against an offensively inept Virginia squad and a shorthanded Miami team without Nigel Pack, who is tied for second on the team in scoring at 13.7 points per game.

The Tar Heels are likely to regress defensively from a squad that has held opponents to a league-best 29.5% shooting from 3-point range in ACC play, starting with a stellar game from Wolfpack guard DJ Horne, whose 42.9% 3-point shooting percentage ranks second-best in the conference.

Both teams want to play a high-possession game, with their tempos ranking in the top six of the conference. And we expect a much better game this time around from Tar Heels forward Armando Bacot, who was held to nine points on 3-for-7 shooting in the first game (he played just 23 minutes), but has averaged 16.1 points per game over his last seven outings.

North Carolina should score the majority of the points, as it averages 86.5 points per game in ACC home games this season, with 85 or more points in five of eight.

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NC State vs. UNC best odds

bet365 (-110)

As Over backers, we are immediately drawn to the slightly lower totals at DraftKings and bet365, and choose bet365 as our go-to shop given that it charges slightly less in juice than DraftKings. We would play this number up to 153.5, but are taking advantage of the 153s that are available.

The Over is 14-6-1 when NC State has 2-3 days off, which is does having last played on Tuesday, and is 6-3 in its nine games as underdogs. Similarly, the Over is a profitable 7-5-1 when UNC is a home favorite as opposed to the Under cashing in eight of its nine road games overall.

NC State vs. UNC odds

There has been interesting line movement on the total, as the number either rose or lowered depending on the sportsbook. FanDuel and DraftKings got to their current numbers from opening totals of 151.5 and 152.5, respectively. Conversely, Caesars and bet365 have slightly lowered from opening numbers of 154.0. Early wagers are 60/40 in support of the Over.

All of our top sportsbooks are in unison with a point spread of North Carolina -10.5, and DraftKings is the only shop that has the underdogs juiced to -112. FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings were the only three of our top sports betting sites to reach a high of -12.5 on Friday night, while Caesars and bet365 have come down to their current numbers from a high of -12. Sharp action is likely on the underdog Wolfpack, as the line has shaded in their favor despite receiving just 43% of the betting action.