NC State vs. North Carolina prediction ATS, odds, props & best bets: Rivals tip off in ACC Tournament Championship

Can NC State finish its miracle ACC Tournament run and steal an automatic NCAA Tournament bid? Tonight's final will be the Wolfpack's toughest matchup so far this tournament, as they face ACC regular-season champion North Carolina. 

NC State vs. UNC odds at the top sports betting sites price the Tar Heels as a favorite, with the Wolfpack available for on the point spread and on the moneyline.

At some point, NC State figures to run out of gas, as this is its fifth game in five days. The Tar Heels, which appear to have a No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed locked up, look to cap off their incredible season and be the first team since 2018 Virginia to win the conference tournament and regular-season championship.

North Carolina is 19-14 against the spread and ended the season playing its best basketball. The Tar Heels won their final six regular-season games, covering the spread in four of them. Carolina has won two ACC Tournament games to make it to tonight's championship. The Tar Heel defense has been locking opponents down, with the UNDER for total points hitting in five of their last seven.

NC State is just 16-18-1 ATS but has gotten hot at the right time, winning four ACC Tournament games in a row and covering the spread in three. Their offense has been playing well, and the OVER has hit in three of the Wolfpack's last five, and their team total has gone OVER in four straight. 

Here is the NC State vs. Virginia betting news, props, and a prediction for today's ACC Tournament Championship. The game tips off tonight at 8:30 p.m. on ESPN.

NC State vs. UNC live odds for ACC Tournament Championship

Here are the ACC Tournament Championship spread, moneyline and total points live odds for NC State vs. North Carolina on our favorite sportsbook apps.

NC State Wolfpack betting news & stats

The Wolfpack needed a miracle shot to force overtime against Virginia in Friday night's ACC semifinal. The Cavaliers, up three, had a chance to ice the game at the free-throw line, but they missed the front end of a 1-and-1. With about six seconds left on the clock and no timeouts, the Wolfpack raced it up the floor, getting the ball to Michael O'Connell, who averages only 5.6 PPG, and he came up clutch, banking in a three to force OT.

Virginia and NC State played back-and-forth in overtime, but the Wolfpack, down 65-64 with two minutes left, went on a 9-0 run to clinch their spot in tonight's championship game.

The Wolfpack have played and lost to North Carolina twice this season, although they covered as 11-point underdogs in a 79-70 loss at Chapel Hill two weeks ago.

NC State is playing with house money and was not expected to be in tonight's championship game. The Wolfpack are the lowest seed to make the ACC Tournament final since the conference expanded to its current number of basketball teams. If they win as the No. 10 seed, they would be the lowest-seeded team to win the conference tournament in the ACC's 70-year history. The Wolfpack have gotten here because their top players are performing, and different role players have been stepping up each game throughout the last four days.

Mohamed Diarra has been rebounding at an elite level, grabbing 11.5 RPG during the tournament run, four more a game than his season average. Casey Morsell averages 11.6 PPG but scored 25 in the first round against Louisville when NC State played without leading scorer DJ Horne.

Returning from an injury against Syracuse, Horne had 16 points off the bench in just 20 minutes of playing time, and he followed it with 18 points off the bench in the quarterfinal against Duke. Then last night, DJ Burns had 19 points in just 24 minutes, and Michael O'Connell had 12, including the three to force overtime. 

North Carolina Tar Heels betting news & stats

The Tar Heels are a dominant force in the conversation of favorites to win the national championship ( odds to win the national title), and are the heavy favorite tonight. It is not hard to see why. Carolina ranks 23rd for adjusted offensive efficiency and 6th for adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Heels play at a frantic pace, ranking 46th for adjusted tempo, and can run teams out of the gym when they get out on the break.

That pace will be a significant advantage tonight against a Wolfpack team that has to be running on fumes. North Carolina leans on its veterans, with three seniors and a junior averaging double digits. Senior RJ Davis leads the team with 21.1 PPG, ranking top 20 in the country for scoring average. Armando Bacot, the Tar Heels' second-leading scorer, averages a double-double with 14 PPG and 10.1 RPG.

Harrison Ingram, the Stanford transfer, has given the Tar Heels something they were missing last year: an athletic wing who can play multiple positions, defend like crazy, and score the ball when needed. Ingram has been that and more, averaging 12.2 PPG and 9.2 RPG. The Tar Heels need their veterans to be a calming presence tonight, as the Wolfpack are playing better than anyone could have anticipated.

NC State vs. North Carolina props at FanDuel Sportsbook

Here are some of the top prop markets for the NC State vs. North Carolina from FanDuel Sportsbook for the ACC Tournament Championship.

• 1st half spread: NC State +4.5 (-104) vs North Carolina -4.5 (-118)
• 1st half moneyline: NC State +225 vs North Carolina -290 
• North Carolina team total: 77.5 points OVER (-120) / UNDER (-102)
• NC State team total: 68.5 points OVER (-110) / UNDER (-110)
• 1st half total: 69.5 points OVER (-120) / UNDER (-104)

NC State vs. UNC prediction ATS: Wolfpack keep it close

The winner is hard to predict, as the Wolfpack seem to have a little March magic on their side and look to finish their Cinderella run and steal an NCAA Tournament bid. With a spread in the high single digits, we're on the dog tonight.

Pick: NC State to cover the spread ()

Best NC sportsbooks to bet NC State vs. UNC in ACC Tournament final

With sports betting launching in North Carolina on Monday, March 11, this NC State vs. UNC matchup marks the first ACC Tournament final fans can bet on legally in the state. If you're looking to get in on tonight's betting action, our favorite NC sportsbook sites are Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel, BetMGM, Bet365, and DraftKings.

All of these NC sportsbook apps are offering great welcome bonuses for new customers. Check out these promo codes and find one or more that suit you. You can claim bonuses at multiple sportsbooks.