NCAA college football: Ball State matchups vs. Kentucky in Week 1

MUNCIE, Ind. — Ball State football makes its 2023 debut at noon Saturday at Kentucky, the first of the team's two consecutive games against Southeastern Conference opponents.

The Cardinals enter as 26.5-point underdogs and didn't fare well against similar competition to open last season when they were beaten 59-10 at Tennessee, a team that also handed the then-No. 19 Wildcats their worst loss of the season (44-6).

Star tight end Brady Hunt (ankle) and top defensive lineman Tavion Woodard (shoulder) are also day-to-day as of Wednesday.

With a veteran-laden roster determined to overcome 2022's disappointing 5-7 campaign and a more favorable starting matchup, BSU expects to be better this fall than last. But UK, which received votes but is ranked outside the top-25, also enters as a hungry and reloaded squad, so it's unlikely the Cardinals get taken lightly.

Here are the two biggest factors heading into the Week 1 matchup:

Ball State football's unproven passing offense v. Kentucky's staunch defense

The most uncertain aspect of Ball State's team entering 2023 is its offense, specifically how transfer quarterback Layne Hatcher and a slew of new and unproven receivers will perform.

The Wildcats last year ranked second in the SEC in passing yards allowed (173.42) and third in total yards allowed (320.17) and points against (19.08) per game. They also opened against Miami (Ohio) and later faced Northern Illinois, teams they held to just 189 passing yards per contest en route to victories.

Although UK returns five defensive starters, including lineman Deone Walker (Second Team All-SEC as true freshman) and linebacker JJ Weaver (Third Team All-SEC), the good news for BSU is that Kentucky lost three starting defensive backs.

But fifth-year defensive coordinator Brad White has established defensive consistency regardless of his personnel, holding opponents to 26 or fewer points per game in four straight seasons.

"If they weren't the No. 1 defense in the SEC, they were No. 2 or one of the top defensive teams in the country for sure," Ball State head coach Mike Neu said. "It's gonna be a great challenge that way for our guys. When you can hold the national champions a year ago in Georgia to 16 points, that speaks a lot about your defense."

Kentucky's defensive profile doesn't bode well for a passing attack that ranked 11th in the MAC in efficiency (114.1) a year ago, started training camp slowly and is far from established within the program. And with the Wildcats being heavily favored, it's likely they take an early lead and force the Cardinals to throw more than they'd like.

UK wasn't as effective stopping the run game in 2022, however, allowing 108.3 rushing yards per game during its four non-conference contests. Kent State transfer running back Marquez Cooper (1,331 yards in 2022, second in MAC) and co-starter Vaughn Pemberton are capable of doing damage behind an experienced offensive line, so a run-first approach might be best for BSU.

Ball State football's defense v. Kentucky's star offensive skill players

Kentucky's offense will be led by NC State transfer quarterback Devin Leary, who enjoyed a tremendous 2021 campaign (3,433 passing yards, 65.7% completions, 35 TD's, five interceptions) but suffered a season-ending shoulder injury just six games into last year.

As a prolific passer, he joins a receiving trio of Barion Brown, Dane Key (both NFL prospects) and Tayvion Robinson that combined for 127 catches, 1,644 yards and 13 TD's to help Will Levis become the 33rd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Aided by an offensive line that's expected to be improved and the re-hire of offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who guided UK to 10 wins and 32.3 points per game in the same role in 2021 before a one-year stint as OC of the NFL's Los Angeles Rams, the Wildcats pose a major threat to Ball State's veteran but revamped secondary.

"I think they've done as good of a job as anybody of utilizing the transfer portal to add some key pieces to their program," Neu said. "We've watched Kentucky tirelessly and it's going to be a great challenge."

Then there's the addition of Vanderbilt transfer running back Ray Davis, who ran for 1,042 yards and tallied eight total TD's a year ago. Kentucky was the SEC's worst-scoring offense in 2022, largely because of its lack of rushing production, so upgrading in that facet was an emphasis Ball State is aware of.

"It's very clear that they want to run the ball. Offensive line wise, I think they're trying to take pride in that," linebacker Clayton Coll said. "They're gonna take some deep shots and explosive plays. So for us, it's just how gap sound can we be upfront and how disciplined can we be on the back end to be all on the same page and communicate at a high level?"