NCAA Football Betting: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks Week 12
Welcome back, folks, to Week 12 of "Fade the Top 25", where we take a look at the action in the Top 25 to find the ranked teams that are primed for a non-cover, either by a straight-up loss or perhaps laying a boatload of points and squeak by.
Things are heating up with the second release of the College Football Playoff polls. In the final year of the 4-team format, there are currently five undefeated Power 5 teams. No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan play each other next week, so one of those teams is guaranteed a loss, which fits perfectly for the CFP committee.
Where things get interesting is if another one of the undefeated teams loses. There would be chaos, as there are currently four more teams with just one loss. The final season of the 4-team format could end up being the most talked about, as there could be six teams fighting for one spot.
Yet, increasing the playoff field will solve this problem and create more of the same. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for an expanded playoff and cannot wait until next season. We see it every season on Selection Sunday during March Madness when the "bubble bursts" on a handful of teams. However, while the new system will be flawed, it will definitely improve the landscape of college football.
Four Top 25 matchups this week are highlighted by the No. 5 Washington Huskies traveling to Corvallis to take on the No. 11 Oregon State Beavers. This week also sees the 121st edition of the "Sunflower Showdown," the annual rivalry game between Kansas and Kansas State.
Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.
Rutgers vs. No. 12 Penn State (-20.5/40.5) Noon FS1
Rutgers visits Happy Valley at the perfect time. Penn State lost any hope of reaching the CFP last week as No. 3 Michigan soundly handled them. They fired their offensive coordinator on Sunday, and the 5-star quarterback has yet to be the savior that the Penn State faithful prayed for. Rutgers has been sneaky good this season and has a Top 20 defense in scoring (18.3 ppg). Previous editions of the Nittany Lions have struggled after they encountered defeat. Penn State's defense is too good to let Rutgers score enough points, but the struggling Nittany Lion offense continues, and this game is much closer than three touchdowns. PICK: Rutgers +20.5
No. 7 Texas vs Iowa State (+7.5/46.5) 8:00 pm FOX
The seventh-ranked Longhorns remain in playoff contention after the Week 6 34-30 loss to No. 12 Oklahoma. Although Texas boasts an impressive 9-1 record straight up, bettors have been less satisfied, with a 4-6 ATS performance. This involves failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games. Failing to cover in November is not a new thing for the Longhorns. Over their last 10 games where they have been road favorites by a touchdown or more, Texas is 7-3 SU and a bankroll-killing 3-7 ATS. Iowa State has a decent defense, giving up 19.9 ppg. Consecutive conference road games at the end of the are challenging. PICK: Iowa State +7.5
No. 14 Oklahoma vs. BYU (+24/57.5) Noon ESPN
BYU's first year in the Big 12 has differed from what the Cougars hoped for. The Cougars hope to get back their starting QB, Kedon Slovis, who has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. The Big 12 gave the Sooners a nice going-away present: three out of four on the road at the end of the season. The first two games of this stretch gave Oklahoma its first two losses. While the Sooners are 7-3 ATS on the season, they're 1-3 ATS in their last four games. Oklahoma's high-powered offense averages 41.8 ppg but only 26.4 ppg in conference road games. Three-and-a-half touchdowns are a lot of points to lay in a conference road game at the end of the season, especially in an environment like Provo. PICK: BYU +24
Minnesota vs. No. 2 Ohio State (-27.5/49.5) 4:00 pm Big Ten Network
Unlike most of the Top Ten, No. 2 Ohio State holds its destiny in its own hands. Relatively untested through the season, they have one more speed bump before they play "That Team Up North" for the Big Ten East title. This matchup has all the makings of a trap game. The Buckeyes feature an elite defense, 2nd in the nation with 9.9 ppg. Their offense, however, isn't nearly as dynamic. At 5-5, the Golden Gophers are playing for their bowl lives. Minnesota is no stranger to being big road dogs in conference. In their last six road games in November, Minnesota's 1-5 SU but a sparkling 5-1 ATS. That includes a trip to Ohio State as a 23.5-point dog, resulting in a 28-14 Buckeye win but Gopher cover. PICK: Minnesota +27.5
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