NCAAF ACC Championship Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

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01 December 2023

NCAAF ACC Championship Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

Florida State obviously has a big hole to fill at QB, but our college football picks wonder if Louisville can avoid getting sacked enough to make up the margins as these sides clash for the ACC Championship.

The Florida State Seminoles may be without star quarterback Jordan Travis, but their College Football Playoff hopes persist, no matter what some ESPN talking heads may want you to believe. All the Seminoles should need to do is beat the Louisville Cardinals as college football odds favorites on Saturday.

The focus may be on Florida State quarterback Tate Rodemaker, now starting in place of Travis, but the Seminoles’ greatest strength this weekend should be on the other side of the ball, their defense giving them an edge in our free college football picks and predictions for Louisville vs Florida State on December 2.

Louisville vs Florida State best odds

Louisville vs Florida State picks and predictions

In Florida State’s last five games, it racked up 22 sacks. Good luck, Jack Plummer.

Sacks are underrated. Far more often than not, any drive that suffers a sack then fails. And it fails from worse field position. Singular plays that impact both possession and field position? Sacks are not as dramatic as turnovers, but they have some of the same effects.

The Seminoles offense has played with Rodemaker behind center before. He may have always been a reserve, but Rodemaker has been in the program for four years and has completed 57.6% of his passes with an average of 7.6 yards per pass attempt in his spot appearances. Most importantly, Florida State knows what it has in him. He is not an unknown.

And the defense thus knows it needs to set him up for success.

An effective pass rush with added aggression should make life miserable for Plummer. To put some numbers behind that likelihood, the Seminoles pressure opposing passers on 36.6% of their dropbacks, No. 21 in the country. On 9.5% of opposing dropbacks, Florida State takes down the quarterback, No. 7 in the country. That’s how it averages 3.17 sacks per game.

The Cardinals struggle on late downs. They convert only 38.9% of their third downs, rather average, No. 69 in the country. And sacks will knock Louisville further behind the chains than usual, leading to punts. See how sacks can be considered to be the lite version of turnovers?

The world is focused on Rodemaker, but he has been under Mike Norvell’s tutelage for four years. Some semblance of success should be expected.

More attention needs to be paid to fifth-year linebacker Kalen DeLoach and his seven sacks, to fifth-year defensive end Jared Verse and his five sacks, and to junior defensive linemen Joshua Farmer (no relation) and Patrick Payton and their five sacks apiece.

They should cause enough trouble for Plummer to give Rodemaker some margin for error to cover this short spread.

My best bet: Florida State -1.5 (-110 at BetMGM) 33% boost available
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Louisville vs Florida State same-game parlay

Florida State -1.5

Tate Rodemaker Over 192.5 passing yards

Florida State defensive/special teams TD

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Remove Tate Rodemaker’s start against Florida and his injury-replacement appearance against FCS-level North Alabama in the second half of November, and the Seminoles averaged 291.1 passing yards per game this season. No one here is claiming Rodemaker is Travis. He isn’t. But setting Rodemaker’s passing yards prop a third lower than the usual Florida State average this season is an overreaction.

Norvell is one of the best play-callers in the country, and Louisville’s defense is more susceptible against the pass than the rush, sometimes even giving up explosive plays. The worry about the Seminoles’ quarterback seems to forget Florida State has some of the best big-target and big-play receivers in the country in Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson.

Adding a defensive or special teams touchdown to this same-game parlay is going all-in on the havoc created by Verse & Co. The Seminoles have three defensive or special teams touchdowns this season, coming in three separate games.

There’s an obvious small-sample size worry here, but three out of 12 games is obviously 25%, while pricing such a touchdown at +550 this weekend suggests about a 15.4% chance of such a score happening, before adjusting for the inflated vig inherent to touchdown markets. That’s enough of a discrepancy to enjoy some value here.

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Louisville vs Florida State spread and Over/Under analysis

The Travis injury has added some intrigue to this line. Last weekend, it opened with Florida State favored by 3.5 or 4, depending on your book, and it steadily ticked down this week, to -3.5 on Monday, to -2.5 midweek, and to -1.5 on Thursday.

Season-long trends feel only relatively applicable when talking about a star quarterback being injured for the biggest game of the season, but for what it’s worth, the Seminoles are 3-0 against the spread this season in games with a spread within one score. Louisville is 3-2-1 ATS in such moments.

The total opened as high as 52.5 last weekend before quickly falling to 51.5. It dropped to 49.5 on Monday, reaching its current mark of 47.5 in the middle of the week.

If tempted at all by that defensive or special teams score, then thoughts of the Over should immediately make sense. Furthermore, 47.5 is below the key numbers of 48 and 49, not to mention 51 and 52.

Louisville vs Florida State betting trend to know

In Norvell’s four seasons as Seminoles head coach, they have gone 6-2 ATS when favored by a touchdown or less. Find more college football betting trends for Louisville vs Florida State.

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