Nets vs. 76ers Game 3 odds, prediction, pick Thursday, Apr. 20

Two games into their first-round series, the 76ers have dominated the Nets on the scoreboard and carry a commanding 2-0 lead into Thursday’s Game 3 in Brooklyn.

Oddsmakers are executing more of the same in this one, pricing Philly as a modest road favorite to seize a 3-0 advantage and essentially shut the door on the Nets’ chances in this one.

Will we see another blowout victory for the Sixers, or can Brooklyn show some life in its home building?

Here’s how we’re betting Thursday’s contest, which tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

Nets vs. 76ers odds

• 76ers -4.5 (-110), moneyline -190
• Nets +4.5 (-110), moneyline +160
• O/U 209.5 (-110)

Nets vs. 76ers prediction and analysis

(7:30 p.m. ET on TNT)

Entering the first two games of this series, I was incredibly high on Philly to exert its will offensively in a matchup that clearly favors the higher seed on paper.

Sure enough, we were treated to a pair of blowout wins from the 76ers, who are drawing 75% of bet slips and 86% of the money wagered in the hours before Thursday’s contest, too.

That said, I was impressed by what I saw from the Nets early in Game 2, and it feels like there’s real value on the home underdogs in Game 3.

For the second straight game, Brooklyn’s swarming defense frustrated Joel Embiid, who finished with 20 points and 19 rebounds but also turned it over eight times – tied for his most in a game all season.

The Sixers’ shooters were also far less proficient than they were in Game 1, as they hit just 11-of-35 attempts from long range (31.4%) in Monday’s win.

A big part of that was the massive regression from James Harden, who filled up the stat sheet with 13 assists and seven made 3-pointers in the series opener.

He hit just two triples in Game 2 and finished with a meager eight points and seven assists in 38 minutes, and he’s converted on just 2-of-13 shots from inside the arc across the entire series.

That’s left some to wonder aloud whether Harden is once again playing through pain in the postseason.

It also puts an immense amount of pressure on third option Tyrese Maxey – who led his team with 33 points on Sunday – to carry the load offensively with Embiid facing constant double teams and Harden unable to finish at the rim.

Meanwhile, the Nets have to be encouraged by the strong performance from Cameron Johnson (28 points), who scored 22 points in the first half of Sunday’s loss to carry his side to a five-point lead heading into intermission.

Then Embiid started to crack the code offensively, and Brooklyn couldn’t find a reliable scorer alongside Johnson and Mikal Bridges (21 points).

I’d expect the Nets’ secondary and tertiary players to show some signs of life in front of their home crowd – a story as old as time in the NBA postseason – and for Brooklyn coach Jacque Vaughn to continue to throw new and perplexing defensive looks at the presumptive MVP, who has consistently needed time to settle in before leading his team to an eventual blowout margin.

Betting on the NBA?

Can the Nets survive a late rally?

Fortunately, they don’t need to: they’re catching 2.5 points (-130) in the first half, which feels like a stellar bet given the circumstances.

Since 2005, home teams down 0-2 in a playoff series are 88-45-2 against the spread (66.2%) against the first-half line, which makes sense intuitively and has played out time and time again over the past two decades.

The desperation of the Nets’ deficit should only fuel their tenacious defense and long-range shooting at home – at least for a half.