Celtics vs. 76ers NBA playoffs Game 1 odds, prediction, pick

On paper, this second-round series between the Celtics and 76ers should be one of the best of the entire NBA postseason.

But health could determine whether that actually comes to fruition.

Superstar center Joel Embiid (knee) seems like a long shot to play in Monday’s Game 1, which has prompted oddsmakers at BetMGM to install Philadelphia as a double-digit underdog in this series opener.

Will this game be as much of a blowout as the market is expecting, or can the Sixers keep it close with their top player on the bench?

Here’s how we’re betting Monday’s contest, which tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

Celtics vs. 76ers odds

• Celtics -10.5 (-105), moneyline -550
• 76ers +10.5 (-115), moneyline +400
• O/U 213.5 (-110)

Celtics vs. 76ers prediction and analysis

(7:30 p.m. ET on TNT)

Everything about betting this game revolves around two central questions: will Embiid play through the right knee sprain that has kept him sidelined since Game 3 of the first round?

And if he doesn’t, how much worse will the 76ers be without him?

The answer to that first question seems clearer with every passing day.

On Saturday, coach Doc Rivers casted doubt on Embiid’s chances of suiting up two days later, which came hours before a report that Embiid’s injury was more serious than originally thought. He was listed as “doubtful” on Sunday’s injury report.

It doesn’t take a basketball genius to suggest the Sixers are worse on paper without this year’s presumptive MVP.

Embiid led the league in scoring (33.1 PPG) on a stellar 54.8% shooting in the regular season, and his mere presence on the court fueled much of his team’s success in the first round against Brooklyn.

Here’s the tricky part: the 76ers have actually been better on a per-possession basis this year when Embiid isn’t playing.

And they’ve rarely been blown out in the way oddsmakers are expecting on Monday.

This season, Philadelphia has outscored opponents by 4.2 points per 100 possessions in its 69 combined regular-season and postseason games with Embiid on the court.

In 17 games without him, that net rating jumps to 7.3 – which would have ranked ahead of the league-leading Celtics (+6.7) for the best mark across the full regular season.

Strangely enough, this team has been one point better offensively and two points better defensively across 100 possessions without its superstar center, boasting a 12-5 record outright with just two losses by double digits.

The Sixers have shot nearly identically from the floor with and without Embiid, but they’ve enjoyed a faster pace with better passing efficiency and more 3-point volume in his absence.

Meanwhile, the Celtics have been the NBA’s best team this season but aren’t exactly blowing the doors off their opponents.

Just two of the team’s six games in Round 1 ended in double-digit margins, and all four of their games against Philly this year were decided by nine points or less.

Granted, Embiid played in all four of those games and combined for 93 points in the final two, but oddsmakers seem to be overstating his impact here for a team that has enough talent to succeed without him.

We already saw that in Game 4 of the Nets series, when five 76ers finished in double figures and four finished with at least eight rebounds.

Betting on the NBA?

Also consider the massive rest advantage that Philadelphia enjoys after sweeping its first-round opponent.

Over the last 20 years, just 13 teams have entered a postseason series with more than a week of rest; eight of them covered the spread in Game 1 (61.5%), and just one of those 13 teams lost by 10 or more points.

I wouldn’t bet on the Sixers in a full series without their MVP frontrunner, but they should be able to hang with the C’s after more than a week to prepare.