New Mexico Bowl Betting Guide: BYU vs. SMU Odds, Picks and Predictions

This article is part of our College Football Picks series.

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The Cougars have been very much an up-and-down team this season, but are trending positively entering the New Mexico Bowl. They closed the year with three straight wins and covers, leading to a final record of 7-5 SU, though going a disappointing 4-8 ATS. The over has hit in each of those last three wins, and eight times overall. SMU meanwhile checks in at 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS, with the total going over just five times. 

Spread: SMU -4 (DraftKings SportsBook)

Total: 64.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline: SMU -175 (BetMGM); BYU +155 (DraftKings SportsBook)

I'd love to hear/be told about a game with more line movement than we've seen here. BYU opened  by as much as a 1.5-point favorite, moved all the way to SMU being a 5.5-point favorite before ticking back down. That fluctuation has everything to do with the availability of BYU quareterback Jaren Hall, who now seems highly unlikely to suit up. Seemingly as predictable, a potential shootout with a total opening at 73.5 has now fallen as low as 64.0. We can debate the reasoning behind this, but that's an awful lot of points to shave off of initial projections.

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SMU will have QB Tanner Mordecai, but he'll be without leading receiver Rashee Rice. Head coach Rhett Lashlee has been pretty vocal that this bowl game won't define their season, and it's also fair to question the Mustangs' ability to continually play fast at an altitude they aren't accustomed to. The absence of Hall certainly calls into question the potential of BYU to score, but SMU ranks 123rd in points allowed at 34.7 ppg. Perhaps Lashlee's downplaying of this game is just coachspeak, as I find them to be the better side, but it's enough to press pause on the cover. Where I'm intrigued is the game's slumping total, a space I don't usually target. The over would be 4-0-1 in SMU's last five games, and I'm not confident this line's slide has finished. We could wait up until near kickoff and see it slide. I don't belive the absence of Hall is worth 10 points against the SMU defense. If the game remains as close as the spread suggests, BYU is scoring.

This game features combating trends. I like SMU to prevail but they aren't spread darlings. I like the over, but that's not been part of the Mustangs season either; perhaps due to elevated lines, however. I find the Mustangs' defense to be bad enough that BYU will get their points even without a quarterback. Further, I think altitude plays a factor against the Mustangs' defense. In the end, however, Mordecai gives SMU a major advantage. I'll take his experience to lead a game-winning drive late, with plenty of points scored in a back and fourth game prior.

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