North Texas vs. SMU Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 11

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08 November 2023

North Texas vs. SMU Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 11

The SMU Mustangs host the North Texas Mean Green in the opener of a college football doubleheader on Friday, and we offer our best North Texas vs. SMU prediction based on the best college football odds.

North Texas (3-6, 1-4 AAC) is one of four AAC teams with one or fewer conference wins on the campaign. The Mean Green have lost three consecutive games, all by one score, and they are one of two teams in the conference with a positive point differential (+10) despite a losing record in league play.

SMU (7-2, 5-0) is one of three unbeaten teams in AAC play and one of three programs in the conference riding a five-game winning streak. The Mustangs control their destiny for a berth to the first-ever AAC Championship Game, as the other two undefeated teams in the league (Tulane and UTSA) must play each other in the last game of the regular season.

As part of our Week 11 college football predictions, here is our best North Texas vs. SMU prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

North Texas vs. SMU prediction: Week 11

Under 68.5 (-110 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Most bettors will look at this matchup between the top two offenses in the AAC and assume a shootout will ensue. Granted, North Texas leads the conference in total offense, averaging 482.3 yards per game, while SMU is right behind at 464.6 yards per game and is the only team in the American to average 40 or more points per game. However, the last two meetings between these teams had projected totals of 67 points or higher, and they stayed under by an average of nearly 19 points per contest.

SMU is a rightful 17-point favorite, mainly because of how stifling its defense is. The Mustangs have allowed 13.4 points per game in conference play, and their 67 total points allowed in five games is 43 points lower than the next-best defense. SMU may have allowed 31 points in a road win against Rice, but its defense entered that game ranked in the top ten in FBS in Rush Success, Pass Success, and Quality Drives Allowed. That gaudy 31-point total is misleading, considering Rice still managed just 290 yards of total offense, and its first touchdown came on a special teams touchdown after a blocked punt.

North Texas is coming off a game where it allowed 37 points to UTSA after allowing 287 yards on the ground. However, even if it allows SMU its season-long scoring average of 40 points, we do not expect the Mean Green offense to break through for four touchdowns against the conference’s most stout defense.

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North Texas vs. SMU best odds

BetMGM, Caesars, bet365 (-110)

We are not swayed by the cheaper price offered at DraftKings and FanDuel to back the Under at a lower number, as the best value is among BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365 at the slightly higher total.

The Under is 8-2 in North Texas’ last 10 road games in November. We would not put anyone off laying the big spread with SMU, considering it is 7-1 ATS in its previous eight head-to-head meetings with North Texas.

North Texas vs. SMU odds

There has been differing line movement among our best sports betting apps with regard to the total, depending on what they had as their opening number. FanDuel came down two points from an opening total of 69.5, while BetMGM and Caesars have seen their totals increase from opening numbers of 67.5 and 67. DraftKings is the only shop that has seen some increase and decrease throughout the week, initially rising from 68 to 68.5 before plummeting to 67.5. The early wagers are skewed heavily (70/30) in support of the Over.

FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering a point spread of SMU -16.5, as all others are in unison at -17. Any line movement has gone in the Mustangs’ direction, as BetMGM, DraftKings, and bet365 all opened with spreads of -15.5, while Caesars reached its current spread from an opening of -14.5. North Texas is 5-3 ATS, while SMU has covered five of its nine games.