New York Mets at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

The New York Mets (25-23) open a 3-game series with the Chicago Cubs (20-26) Tuesday. First pitch from Wrigley Field is at 7:40 ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: first meeting; the Cubs won 4 of 7 meetings in 2022

The Mets are coming into Wrigley with some momentum, winning 5 straight 1-run games. New York completed a 3-game sweep of the Cleveland Guardians with a 2-1 victory Sunday. The Mets are 4.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves for 1st in the NL East.

The Cubs return home from a 9-game road trip during which they went 2-7 and find themselves just half a game out of last place in the NL Central. Chicago lost 2-1 to the Philadelphia Phillies Sunday, its lone run coming from a solo home run in the 9th inning from OF Christopher Morel.

Mets at Cubs projected starters

RHP Kodai Senga vs. LHP Drew Smyly

Senga (4-2, 3.77 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 through 43 IP.

• Last start: No decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 B, 12 K in an 8-7 win vs. the Tampa Bay Rays Wednesday
• Has allowed 14 runs in his 4 away starts and just 4 in his 4 home starts

Smyly (4-1, 2.86 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 50 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K in a 7-6 road loss against the Houston Astros Wednesday
• .774 OPS with 2 outs

Mets at Cubs odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.

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Mets at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Cubs 4

The Cubs have lost 5 straight against teams above .500% and have lost 5 in a row when they fail to score more than 2 runs in their previous game.

I’m sticking with the hot team for game 1.

LEAN METS (-110).

While I like the Mets in this game they are just 10-17 ATS on the road, and the Cubs line is way too juicy so I will AVOID betting the spread.

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The Cubs have gone Over in 7 of their past 8 games after a loss according to Covers.com, and the Mets have seen high-scoring games after a day off. They have a 13-3 Over record in their past 16 games coming off rest.

Senga has been worse in his road starts, allowing a .288 OBA in these games while allowing a .161 OBA at home.

BET OVER 8 (-120).

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