Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions
The Chicago Cubs (58-54) and New York Mets (50-61) open a 3-game set Monday. First pitch from Citi Field is at 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cubs lead 2-1
In the weeks before the trade deadline the Cubs went from sellers to buyers. Chicago picked up a 6-4 victory against the Atlanta Braves Sunday to capture its 6th straight series. RHP Justin Steele notched his MLB-leading 13th win with 3 ER allowed on 8 H and 4 BB with 7 K in 5 1/3 IP.
The Mets enter on a 6-game losing skid. New York was swept in a 3-game series by the Baltimore Orioles over the weekend, including a 2-0 defeat Sunday, and started last week by dropping 3 straight at the Kansas City Royals from Tuesday-Thursday. LHP Jose Quintana allowed just 2 ER in 6 IP but New York mustered just 4 hits and couldn’t cash in on 6 free passes.
Cubs at Mets projected starters
LHP Drew Smyly vs. RHP Kodai Senga
Smyly (8-7, 4.71 ERA) makes his 21st start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 112 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 16-6 home win vs. Cincinnati Reds Wednesday
- 2023 road stats: 5-4, 3.26 ERA (58 IP, 21 ER) over 10 starts and 1 relief appearance
- Career vs. Mets: 4-0, 2.17 ERA (29 IP, 7 ER) across 5 starts and 2 relief appearances
Senga (7-6, 3.25 ERA) makes his 21st start. The 30-year-old rookie has a 1.29 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 110 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-0 road loss at Royals Wednesday
- 2023 home stats: 3-2, 2.40 ERA (56 1/3 IP, 15 ER) in 10 games
- One career start vs. Cubs: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 6 K in 4-3 road loss on May 24
Cubs at Mets odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:07 a.m. ET.
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Yankees at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 3, Mets 2
The Mets losing streak will end eventually, but the Cubs are turning their season around and will be tough to beat.
Smyly is a different — and more efficient — pitcher on the road, holding batters to a .253 batting average versus a .269 mark at home. Pair that with a Mets team that is 25-35 after a loss and 5-14 against the NL Central (who only have 1 team with a positive run differential), I like the Cubs at even money.
LEAN CUBS +(100).
Since I like the Cubs straight up it’s easy to pick them ATS but right now the -190 price tag for a run of insurance is too steep to play. Best to stick with the moneyline.
PASS
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The Mets have the best home Under record in MLB (32-15-2), and while the Cubs are one of the best Over teams this season (59-48-5), it’s really under specific circumstances: as a favorite, after a loss, and as the home team — all of which aren’t relevant in this game.
As road underdogs, the Cubs Over record falls to 16-15. The same drop happens after a win, when the Cubs Over record is just (27-25-5).
BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).
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