New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning: Game 6 odds, picks

North Jersey

01 January 0001

New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning: Game 6 odds, picks

With their season now on the line, the New York Rangers travel to the Sunshine State as they take on the Tampa Bay Lightning in a do-or-die Game 6 on Saturday night at 8 p.m.

The 3-1 defeat in Game 5 was New York's first loss on home ice since Game 1 of the opening round snapping an eight game win streak at Madison Square Garden.

On the brink of elimination, will the Rangers force a Game 7 for the third straight series or will the Lightning be competing for a third straight Stanley Cup?

Here are my picks and predictions for Game 6 with odds presented by Tipico Sportsbook.

Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+135)

Just a week ago, New York couldn't have been in a better position. The Blueshirts took both Games 1 & 2 at MSG and outscored the Lightning 9-4 on home ice. A lot has changed in the last week. Of the four goals they've scored in Games 3 through 5, only one goal for the Rangers have come at even strength. Simply not good enough against the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions.

Game 5 looked promising as defenseman Ryan Lindgren opened the scoring Thursday night with a seeing-eye shot that beat Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy high blocker side midway through the second period.

However, Tampa Bay would score with a few minutes remaining in the second frame before taking the lead for good late in the third period.

While the Rangers are 5-0 in elimination games this postseason, they're 2-5 in the last seven meetings in Tampa Bay and have lost seven of nine games away from MSG in the playoffs. In those nine losses, six of them have been by two or more goals with all but one loss on the road.

For Tampa Bay, four of their six home wins this postseason are by multiple goals including Game 4 on Tuesday night. At plus money it's a smart bet if the Lightning win that even if it's a close game they'll most likely add an empty-netter just like they did in Game 5.

Over/Under: Under 5.5 goals (-150)

What a difference five games make. After a eight goal outburst in Game 1, the over/under was set at 5.5 total goals at -115 (Bet $115 to win $100) on Tipico Sportsbook. Since then, the under has hit in four straight games and the 5.5 total is now juiced all the way up to -150 for Game 6 at Tipico Sportsbook.

The under has been dominant in this matchup as its hit in four straight. For the Rangers, the total has gone under in 41 of their last 61 games after scoring two goals or less in the previous game. The under has cashed in seven of the last eight games for the Lightning following a win and six of the last seven when allowing two goals or less in their last game.

Since Game 1, each game has been basically a race to whoever gets to three goals first. With both goalies being on top of their game, I don't see this trend stopping anytime soon regardless of who wins and would keep betting the under as I have since the beginning of this series.

Moneyline: Lightning (-190)

The Rangers are no strangers to this situation. New York trailed 3-2 in each of the first two rounds these playoffs and were able to win two straight to move on. The Blueshirts have stepped up big when its counted most when their playoff lives were on the line.

With that being said, New York hasn't faced a goalie of Vasilevksiy's stature these playoffs especially with how well he has played since the opening game of this series. The 27-year-old netminder comes up big when the team needs him most which I think he will yet again in Game 6.

My go-to bet currently on Tipico Sportsbook is the Lightning to win in regulation at -112 to pay a cheaper price than the -190 for Tampa Bay to win outright.

If you believe the Blueshirts will force a Game 7 at MSG on Tuesday night, I'd go back to the Rangers moneyline and the under 5.5 total goals at +450 on Tipico Sportsbook.

With their playoff hopes on life support, unfortunately I believe New York's season will come to an end on Saturday night as the Bolts try to become the first team to three-peat since the New York Islanders in the early 1980s. I'm betting on the Lightning moneyline (-190), to cover the -1.5 puck line (+135) and the under 5.5 goals scored at -150 at Tipico Sportsbook.