New Zealand vs South Africa Prediction, Odds & Picks
The last time that the Rugby World Cup was held in France, South Africa captured the Webb Ellis Cup with a final win at the Stade de France 16 years ago. Tomorrow, the Springboks will look to repeat that feat as they take on New Zealand for all of the marbles in the 2023 Rugby World Cup final (3:00 pm ET, CNBC & Peacock).
Both teams will be seeking a record fourth world title. South Africa will be aiming to add to their titles from 1995, 2007, and 2019, while New Zealand are after an addition to their wins in 1987, 2011, and 2015.
This will be the fifth straight Rugby World Cup final and seventh overall (in ten all-time editions of the tournament) to feature the Springboks, who are making a fourth final appearance, and/or All Blacks, who are making a record fifth final appearance.
Bet on the Rugby World Cup Final at BetDSI
Only five teams have appeared in the Rugby World Cup final, and only one of those teams, South Africa, has a perfect record. However, only one team, New Zealand, has managed to win the tournament twice in a row.
History isn’t on South Africa’s side, and neither are the odds, but will they defy both and become the first side to win four world titles? Or will the favored All Blacks complete their comeback from losing their tournament opener to return to the top step of the podium?
New Zealand vs South Africa Odds
Spread
- New Zealand -2 (-110)
- South Africa +2 (-110)
Moneyline
- New Zealand -117
- South Africa +127
- Draw +2400
Over/Under
- Over 41.5 (-110)
- Under 41.5 (-110)
Will Try-Happy New Zealand Find a Way Through South Africa?
For much of last Saturday’s England vs South Africa semifinal matchup, we appeared to be on the way to a first-ever Rugby World Cup final matchup between England and New Zealand.
Instead, we have a reprise of the 1995 final in Johannesburg. That match is one of two finals to require extra time, and it saw South Africa stun New Zealand 15-12 to lift the trophy in front of their home fans.
In that final, all 27 points came off of the boot. If that were to happen in Saturday’s showdown at the Stade de France, that would likely suit South Africa far more than New Zealand.
There were concerns about South Africa’s kicking accuracy earlier in the tournament, as multiple misses against Ireland cost them a chance to top Pool B (which would have meant meeting the All Blacks in the quarterfinals instead).
But a healthy Handre Pollard returned to the fold for the pool finale against Tonga, and his introduction in the second half changed the direction of both the quarterfinal win over France and the semifinal win over England.
Against France, his 51-meter (56 yards) penalty gave the Springboks a late four-point lead in their 29-28 win. Against England, he connected from 49 meters (54 yards) out with just a few minutes left to hand South Africa, who were favored by almost two converted tries but trailed most of the match, a 16-15 win.
Goal-kicking has been a major factor in Rugby World Cup final history, and perhaps with that in mind, Pollard, not Manie Libbok, will start at fly-half against New Zealand.
2023 Rugby World Cup Final Starting XV for South Africa
- Steven Kitshoff
- Bongi Mbonambi
- Frans Malherbe
- Eben Etzebeth
- Franco Mostert
- Siya Kolisi (captain)
- Pieter-Steph du Toit
- Duane Vermeulen
- Faf de Klerk
- Handre Pollard
- Cheslin Kolbe
- Damian de Allende
- Jesse Kriel
- Kurt-Lee Arendse
- Damian Willemse
In the 2019 final against England, Pollard accounted for 22 of South Africa’s points in their 32-12 win, kicking six penalties and converting both of the late tries that put the match out of reach.
In the first nine Rugby World Cup finals, 41 or fewer points were been scored six times.
But the last two finals have been the highest-scoring and third-highest scoring finals in the tournament’s history, and most of the recent head-to-head meetings between the All Blacks and Springboks have been higher-scoring games.
In 1992, the point value of a try was increased from four to five, and South Africa made its official return to international rugby, following the country’s referendum to end apartheid, with a match against New Zealand.
Starting with that Return Test, the Springboks and All Blacks have met 68 times since 1992. In those 68 matches, 42 or more points have been scored 44 times (64.7%). But how many of those times have come in the Rugby World Cup? None, in five such meetings.
New Zealand vs South Africa Rugby World Cup Head-to-Head Results
- 1995 RWC Final: 15-12 SA (ET)
- 1999 RWC Third-Place Play-Off: 22-18 SA
- 2003 RWC QF: 29-9 NZ
- 2015 RWC SF: 20-18 NZ
- 2019 RWC Pool B: 23-13 NZ
Can New Zealand hit the 50-try mark for the tournament? They scored seven in their 44-6 semifinal win versus Argentina to take their tally to 48 in six 2023 Rugby World Cup games, and if they can make it a half century or more, we could see history made.
Three of those seven tries against the Pumas were scored by Will Jordan, who not only leads this tournament in tries but is now tied for the all-time record for an individual tournament.
If neither he nor New Zealand can add to their totals tomorrow, can the All Blacks win it with the boot? As noted above, that may be where South Africa have a decided edge.
Missed kicks haven’t been decisive for New Zealand yet, but there was a missed conversion and a missed penalty in the four-point quarterfinal win over Ireland and four missed conversions in the win over Argentina.
2023 Rugby World Cup Final Starting XV for New Zealand
- Ethan de Groot
- Codie Taylor
- Tyrel Lomax
- Brodie Retallick
- Scott Barrett
- Shannon Frizell
- Sam Cane (captain)
- Ardie Savea
- Aaron Smith
- Richie Mo’unga
- Mark Telea
- Jordie Barrett
- Rieko Ioane
- Will Jordan
- Beauden Barrett
In the lead-up to the match, there have been rumors on social media regarding the fitness of fly-half Richie Mo’unga. However, he has been named in the starting XV, so it can be presumed that those concerns are unfounded.
New Zealand vs South Africa Prediction & Picks
Prediction: South Africa to win
Picks: South Africa ML (+127 at Bovada) & New Zealand under 22.5 points (-115 at Bovada)
With history in mind and rain in the forecast, I’m looking for a lower-scoring contest at the Stade de France. I think that favors South Africa more, especially because I have more faith in Pollard to be on target if the match comes down to producing points with the boot.
There is a wealth of experience on both sides, and I don’t expect there to be much separating these two titans of international rugby. But in the end, I’m backing the Springboks to stand tallest in the decisive moments and secure a record-breaking fourth Rugby World Cup final win.
Where to Bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup
While rugby may not be one of the most widely watched or bet on sports in the United States, the Rugby World Cup always draws a lot of attention.
In fact, you can find 2023 Rugby World Cup odds at many of the top sports betting sites available to bettors in the USA.
Here are some of the online sportsbooks that we recommend which offer odds on each game in the tournament, as well as Rugby World Cup winner futures odds:
If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our in-depth reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds. Happy betting, and please bet responsibly.
