Next Reading Manager Odds: Why The Royals should go all out for Michael Duff

Why Reading should go all out for Michael Duff

EFL pundit Gab Sutton makes the case for Reading to go all out for Barnsley boss Michael Duff as their next permanent manager...

Consistent success

Pound-for-pound, Michael Duff has been arguably the most successful manager in the EFL over the last five years.

In the Northern Irishman’s first job in senior management, he came into a club (Cheltenham) that was struggling in League Two off the back of a poor transfer window, had only stayed up the year before because of Mo Eisa’s goals, and had been too loyal under the previous ownership regime to Gary Johnson.

Duff began his Robins return with a 10-game winless streak, prompting fear of the drop, but after a crucial change of formation, then a competitive performance against promotion frontrunners Mansfield, the team won 3-0 at Notts County, before Duff’s side won 10 in 15 home games to finish the season as far up as 16th.

Cheltenham continued that momentum into 2019-20 campaign, when they were in the automatic promotion mix all season, and achieved their highest finish in seven years, before the competition got curtailed in March, setting up a Play-Off Semi-Final with Northampton.

Duff’s side won 2-0 at Sixfields in the first leg, but a stunning second leg showing from the Cobblers confounded Cheltenham, who suffered heartache that night and had to bounce back the following season.

They did so emphatically, claiming a first Football League title in the club’s history.

Arguably, the Play-Off Semi-Finalists of 2019-20 were a better footballing team than the champions of 2020-21, but the latter had weaker competition and the long throw threat of Ben Tozer, which steered the trophy to Whaddon Road.

Despite Tozer’s exit for big-spending Wrexham that summer, Cheltenham achieved not only survival in League One, but their highest ever Football League finish.

Duff’s side went 11 games winless in the middle of that campaign, despite which there were never substantial fears of a dogfight, because performances were competitive throughout with a lot of draws against top sides.

Cheltenham finished the campaign with a swagger, too, and top goalscorer Alfie May ended up on a whopping 26 goals, before Duff departed for Barnsley.

Odds correct as of 2023-04-19 21:52 Odds subject to change.

Once again, the Belfast-born boss inherited a club on its knees after a disastrous 2021-22 campaign in the Championship, with controversy over ownership, not much leeway in the budget, and limited scope to overhaul the squad.

It took Duff a few months to put his stamp on the team, and four consecutive October games without a goal put his side five points off the Play-Offs, as it looked to be shaping up to be a rebuilding season.

Instead, Tarn won 19 of the subsequent 26 league games, and with five to play, are now not only mathematically guaranteed a top six spot, but also arguably the greatest threat to Ipswich and Plymouth Argyle’s places in the top two.

Duff has either succeeded in meeting expectations or massively exceeded them in each of his five seasons in management, and not a year has gone by in that time when one of his sides haven’t progressed.

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Laying the roots

So you know what Duff has done in the last five years: the question is, how has he done it?

The first thing is laying the roots. Setting the culture. Duff does this, firstly, leading by example.

The 45-year-old goes about his work in a brisk, businesslike way: he doesn’t berate his players, but he does tell them the truth, and people know where they stand with him.

Duff might not be an ultra-friendly, charm-offensive specialist, but there’s an authentic consistency behind the way he treats people which is respected.

For instance, the former centre-back has called out players saying hello to the directors in the training centre, but not the cleaners.

Lunchtime seating used to feel hierarchical, but under Duff, everyone employed by the club now eats in the same place and mixes with one another.

That, alone, might not win a game, but it’s the 1%ers that make up the bigger picture, and if you start with the right culture, everything can move forward from there.

The 3-5-2

Duff went into Cheltenham planning to use a 4-4-2, something he’d deployed at Burnley Under-23s, but the results weren’t there early on.

For a midweek EFL Trophy hosting of Arsenal in October, though, Duff experimented with 3-5-2 for the first time and his side thrashed Freddie Ljungberg’s young Gunners 6-2.

Ben Tozer had been recruited as a midfielder, but was then deployed in the middle of a back-three, bringing excellent organisational qualities as well as the ball-playing nous to allow Duff’s side to build-up from the back.

In fact, Charlie Raglan, Will Boyle and Tozer forged a formidable defensive trio which, while interrupted slightly when Jacob Greaves was on loan from Hull in 2019-20, was crucial to the club’s rapid rise over two-and-a-half seasons.

For the last five years, Duff has deployed 3-5-2 in almost every game and key to his system is having wing-backs of different descriptions on either side.

In essence, he wants one athlete who can attack the flank directly and really force the issue, and one tricky technician who can land a ball on a sixpence.

In 2018-19, it was Ryan Broom and Chris Hussey doing those respective roles, before the former played predominantly in midfield the following season.

Sean Long took Broom’s place in 2019-20 but he was more of a wing-back who would arrive late in the final third and put in a low cross or cutback, rather than attack directly from the middle third.

As such, Cheltenham added the drive and verve of Matty Blair, which was crucial in the title-winning season, as his more direct play tended to win a lot of throw-ins, which may have contributed to the goals scored from those scenarios that year.

Blair stepped up well to League One but veteran Hussey found the physical demands tough, so Duff recruited another athlete in Ben Williams from Barnsley, whose fresh energy, tenacity, and stamina helped Town get over the line.

Nonetheless, when Duff went to Barnsley, he reverted to the template that got his side the League Two title, favouring an athlete in Jordan Williams at right wing-back, and a technician in Nicky Cadden, recruited from Forest Green, at left wing-back.

Two Williams types as wing-backs? Not enough precision. Two Cadden types? Not enough directness. But with one from each stylistic category, the balance has been perfect, and it’s enabled Duff to home in on the clear patterns of play below.

Clear patterns of play

Because Williams is so effective at knocking the ball 10 yards ahead of himself and running onto it, he only needs one combination option because he can gain his team territory individualistically.

As such, the Tarn stalwart has established a great relationship with right-sided midfielder Adam Phillips, who caused havoc between them in January’s 3-1 win over Accrington Stanley.

Phillips’ movement is excellent, so he can either stay central so as to threaten goalscoring areas, or go into the channels, drag an opposing midfielder away and pave the way for Williams to drive into more dangerous areas.

While Cadden is an excellent dribbler, he does it in a more delicate way and needs space to be created for him in the final third.

As such, Duff has recognized that he needs two combination options rather than one, so the League Two title-winner has support from Herbie Kane from midfield and Liam Kitching from defence.

Bobby Thomas, on the right of the back-three, doesn’t need to support Williams and Phillips as much as Kitching, on the left, needs to support Kane and Cadden.

Initially, the Reds will try to unlock opponents down their left with at least one of the strikers coming short toward Kitching, Kane looking to use his ability on either foot to receive on the half-turn, and Cadden hugging the touchline.

If that works, Cadden gets released in the final third, beats one opponent and puts one cross in, by which point both strikers have broken into the box, Phillips and Kane are on the edge for scraps while Williams is attacking the back-post.

If not, Kitching can play a diagonal to release Williams in acres of space, he’ll drive to the byline if Phillips isn’t ready to receive there already, and Barnsley can cut their opponents wide open.

Under Duff, the South Yorkshire side have the perfect tactical blend of unpredictability and consistency.

Running through the team are relationships, combinations, and clear patterns of play, yet at the same time they are such a hard team to read or defend against.

That can only be possible with outstanding coaching, which speaks to excellent work from Duff.

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What would a Duff Reading side look like?

Based on the players under contract for next season, who are expected to still be there, it’s looking like a maximum of six current senior players players who could get into the best XI.

It’s also plausible that Luke Southwood signs a new deal after an excellent loan spell in League One with Cheltenham, and that Under-23s talent Michael Craig breaks into the team after a good pre-season.

Plus, Duff may see Yiadom as a better stylistic fit as a right centre-back for his system than as a right wing-back, and Kelvin Abrefa could catch the eye.

Let’s say, for the sake of simplicity, that all those things happen, leaving Reading needing only one new first-choice midfielder, a left wing-back, and a strike-partner for Andy Carroll.

For those positions, for instance, they could recruit Archie Collins (8), out of contract at Exeter, Jack Currie (26) from Wimbledon, and Josh Coburn (40) on loan from Middlesbrough, if they go up: the below is a potential pattern of play on that basis. 

Throw in his knowledge of the lower leagues, plus connections in the Under-23s circuit, his relationship with Burnley, plus Everton manager Sean Dyche, and Duff looks a great appointment. The big question is whether he’d leave what he has at Barnsley to go to Reading.

Barnsley's patterns of player under Michael Duff

Would he go?

The chances of Duff going to Reading would hinge on two factors: Barnsley staying down, and the Royals staying up.

It’s possible that both those things happen and the Northern Irishman still feels he has unfinished business at Oakwell, and intends to complete the mission next season.

Conversely, there’s a world in which Barnsley go up, either automatically or via the Play-Offs, but conversations over next season’s budget don’t go as hoped, and he feels there’s more potential at Reading.

If the Berkshire club stay up, they could be the most appealing proposition for managers that they’ve been for a number of years, with sanctions lifted, high-earners off the wage bill, a Technical Director and recruitment team in situ, a fantastic academy, and a blank piece of paper when it comes to squad building.

Duff is an ambitious manager who is massively overdue an opportunity to work in the Championship, and if he gets that this summer, it could be hard for him to turn down.

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